James Altucher calls homeownership a part of The American Religion, so I know I’m treading dangerous ground here. But before you get out the tar and feathers, let’s do a little thought experiment together.
Imagine over a cup or coffee or a glass of wine we get to talking about investments. Then maybe one of us, let’s say you, says:
“Hey I’ve got an idea. We’re always talking about good investments. What if we came up with the worst possible investment we can construct? What might that look like?”
Well, let’s see now (pulling out our lined yellow pad), let’s make a list. To be really terrible:
- It should be not just an initial, but if we do it right, a relentlessly ongoing drain on the cash reserves of the owner.
- It should be illiquid. We’ll make it something that takes weeks, no – wait – even better, months of time and effort to buy or sell.
- It should be expensive to buy and sell. We’ll add very high transaction costs. Let’s say 5% commissions on the deal, coming and going.
- It should be complex to buy or sell. That way we can ladle on lots of extra fees and reports and documents we can charge for.
- It should generate low returns. Certainly no more than the inflation rate. Maybe a bit less.
- It should be leveraged! Oh, oh this one is great! This is how we’ll get people to swallow those low returns! If the price goes up a little bit, leverage will magnify this and people will convince themselves it’s actually a good investment! Nah, don’t worry about it. Most will never even consider that leverage is also very high risk and could just as easily wipe them out.
- It should be mortgaged! Another beauty of leverage. We can charge interest on the loans. Yep, and with just a little more effort we should easily be able to persuade people who buy this thing to borrow money against it more than once.
- It should be unproductive. While we’re talking about interest, let’s be sure this investment we are creating never pays any. No dividends either, of course.
- It should be immobile. If we can fix it to one geographical spot we can be sure at any given time only a tiny group of potential buyers for it will exist. Sometimes and in some places, none at all!
- It should be subject to the fortunes of one country, one state, one city, one town…No! One neighborhood! Imagine if our investment could somehow tie its owner to the fate of one narrow location. The risk could be enormous! A plant closes. A street gang moves in. A government goes crazy with taxes. An environmental disaster happens nearby. We could have an investment that not only crushes it’s owner’s net worth, but does so even as they are losing their job and income!
- It should be something that locks its owner in one geographical area. That’ll limit their options and keep ‘em docile for their employers!
- It should be expensive. Ideally we’ll make it so expensive that it will represent a disproportionate percentage of a person’s net worth. Nothing like squeezing out diversification to increase risk!
- It should be expensive to own, too! Let’s make sure this investment requires an endless parade of repairs and maintenance without which it will crumble into dust.
- It should be fragile and easily damaged by weather, fire, vandalism and the like! Now we can add-on expensive insurance to cover these risks. Making sure, of course, that the bad things that are most likely to happen aren’t actually covered. Don’t worry, we’ll bury that in the fine print or maybe just charge extra for it.
- It should be heavily taxed, too! Let’s get the Feds in on this. If it should go up in value, we’ll go ahead and tax that gain. If it goes down in value should we offer a balancing tax deduction on the loss like with other investments? Nah.
- It should be taxed even more! Let’s not forget our state and local governments. Why wait till this investment is sold? Unlike other investments, let’s tax it each and every year. Oh, and let’s raise those taxes anytime it goes up in value. Lower them when it goes down? Don’t be silly.
- It should be something you can never really own. Since we are going to give the government the power to tax this investment every year, “owning” it will be just like sharecropping. We’ll let them work it, maintain it, pay all the cost associated with it and, as long as they pay their annual rent (oops, I mean taxes) we’ll let ‘em stay in it. Unless we decide we want it.
- For that, we’ll make it subject to eminent domain. You know, in case we decide that instead of getting our rent (damn! I mean taxes) we’d rather just take it away from them.
Here are two more from the comments below…
- Mr. Risky Start-up: It should increase stress, lead to more divorces, but then be impossible to divide.
- DMDave: You only need one motivated (read: desperate) seller to set the price for the whole neighborhood. Imagine your so-called “investment” suddenly get scuttled when your neighbor decided to sell his particle-board mansion at 20% below assessment.
Boy howdy! That’s quite a list! Any investment that ugly would make my skin crawl. In fact, I’m not sure you could rightly call anything with those characteristics an investment at all.
Then, too, the challenge would be to get anybody to buy this turkey. But we can. In fact, I bet we can get them not only to buy but to believe doing so is the fulfillment of a dream, indeed a national birthright! We’ll run the thought experiment on just how we might make that happen in an up-coming post.
For now, in the comments let me know what other characteristics our “worst possible investment” should have that I might have missed.
Oh. Wait. I’m sorry. This was supposed to be about houses.
So a few weeks back I was at an awards banquet and sitting at our table of 10 with me was a woman I know. She began talking about how she was encouraging her young son to buy a house. You know. Stop throwing away money on rent and start building equity.
I suggested that, since her son was single, living alone and without children maybe he didn’t actually need a house. That if he didn’t need one and since they are lousy investments (and here I gave her a few reasons why this is so), maybe he should consider some alternatives instead. Or at least run the numbers first.
This didn’t sit well and it was a short conversation. It ended when she said, “Well, he’d be better off buying a house than a clapped-out Camaro!”
Well, yeah. Maybe so. If this is the only alternative.
Addendum #1: Case Study: Should Josiah buy his parents a house?
Addendum #2: Podcast –Why your house is a terrible investment
Addendum #3: My new friend Patrick has some insightful articles you should also read before being pressured into buying. Here are two:
Addendum #4: House prices since 1890
Addendum #5: Still planning to buy a house? That’s OK. I’ve owned them too. Just go into it with your eyes open. This post will help: Rent v. own, opportunity costs and running the numbers.
Addendum #6: Of the many interesting and insightful comments this post has drawn, this might be the most intriguing: