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You are here: Home / Case Studies / Case Study #9: Lars — maximizing some good fortune and considering “dollar cost averaging”

Case Study #9: Lars — maximizing some good fortune and considering “dollar cost averaging”

by jlcollinsnh 12 Comments

college leaving

When I was first out of college and back in Chicago, it took me two years to find my first professional job. I filled the time trying and failing to launch an advertising agency and working for a landscaper. The first gave me something to put on my resume, the second put some much-needed money in my pocket.

That first professional job, when it came, paid the princely sum of $10,000 per year. They had originally offered $8500. Despite being bold enough (and that was pretty bold given I had no other prospects) to negotiate the higher salary, I still sat at my desk the first week or so wondering what I could possibly do for this company that would be worth ten thousand dollars!

Around this time I became friends with John P, a guy about my same age. From his grandfather, John had inherited a portfolio of stocks that produced an income of just about my salary: $10,000 per year. I remember thinking what a beautiful thing this was. Here was a guy who had all his living expenses covered and who was completely free to choose whatever path appealed, unburdened by the pedestrian need to earn money for food and shelter.

I lost touch with John when he moved to New York City. I often wonder how things turned out for him.

But as for me, his situation planted in my head for the first time the idea of having investments to do the heavy lifting of paying for life’s expenses. It would be a few years yet before I came across the term F-you Money and had a name for what had become my ambition.

Since I was groping blindly about in the dark and index funds were just being invented (and even once the news reached me I would still stupidly reject them for years), reaching this goal took far longer than it should have. Far longer than it will for the astute readers here.

But I’ve always wondered what it would have been like to have John P’s head start. Like him, would I have been smart enough to follow his grandfather’s advice and live on the investment returns, using the inheritance as a platform from which to build? I like to think so. It is certainly the advice I’d give to someone on the receiving end of such luck. Someone like Lars.

Just as I have little use for people who whine about not getting the breaks they think they should, I have even less use for those who fail to appreciate those breaks that come their way.

But Lars recognizes his good fortune and, as you’ll see, is busy making more of his own and is ready to work at making both pay off. Plus he presents an interesting scenario to explore.

Lars and his questions showed up in Ask jlcollinsnh last week. Here is our conversation:

Lars:

Jim,

I love your blog. I’ve read every single part of your “stocks” series, and send them to friends who ask me questions about investments.

I am a mid-20s man about to enter a very good financial situation via marriage to a great woman, also in her mid-20s.

We are both fairly thrifty and are completely debt-free. We have college degrees and steady jobs. We each have reliable, working cars that are paid-in-full. Our annual combined salary is about $125k, but will probably drop to $70k as we have children in the next few years.

Because a family member started a successful company years ago, we will receive about $6-7k per quarter in cash dividends.

We have already saved about $100k in combined 401k/IRA retirement savings (in VTSAX and index funds, thanks to your blog) and are maxing out our 401K/IRA accounts every year.

We have about $75k in combined cash savings. We don’t own a home or any other noteworthy assets. We live fairly frugally, and save about 40-50% of our after-tax income, and we plan to continue to do so in marriage.

Here are the details again in bullet form:

Total debt (student, credit, mortgage): $0
Combined annual salary (before tax): about $125k
Annual cash dividend: $25k (or $6-7k quarterly)
Current combined retirement savings: $100k
Current Cash savings: $75k

I know we have too much cash on hand, and I want to invest it. We’re not interested in buying a home soon, we would rather rent for a while. How would you invest our current cash on hand ($75k) as soon as we get married and how would you continue to invest $6-7k quarterly?

Any other investment allocation or other life-planning advice is MUCH appreciated.

Lars

good fortune Budah

The Good Fortune Buddha:

Shall we rub his belly or invest?

jlcollinsnh:

Welcome Lars…

…and thanks for the kind words and for passing the blog on to your friends. That’s the highest praise of all.

One of my pet peeves is people who look at the asset building strategies discussed here and dismiss them as accessible only to those who are very lucky.

You certainly appear to have been luckier than many who write me. But to your credit you are not squandering the luck that has come your way. Far too many would, followed by their complaints of how unfair life is.

So kudos!

The biggest risk I see for you is the lure of lifestyle inflation.

So my first suggestion would be to cap your spending at 35k, half the income you’ll have when the kids start coming. Or, if you are feeling really badass, live solely on that ~25k dividend and invest all your earnings. Then let your lifestyle expand only at the pace those investments grow.

That said, it sounds like you’ve already nailed my nine steps as described here: How I failed my daughter and A Simple Path-to-Wealth

Well done!

If you haven’t already, take a look at this: My Path for my Kid: The First 10 Years

While it seems you’re hitting most all these already, it never hurts to review as an aid for staying the course.

The 75k in cash I’d put into VTSAX. With your dual incomes and cash flow you can afford to have little or no emergency fund. This is especially true since you don’t own a house. Since houses require a relentless parade of often expensive repairs, they are the single biggest generators of the need for emergency cash.

While I am blissfully back to being a renter now, I’ve owned houses for over 3o years. In each case, I’m glad I did. But only because I wanted the lifestyle at the time. They are an expensive indulgence and as such should only be bought if and when that indulgence is worth the price and the price is one you can easily afford.

That may well be when your kids are around school age and school districts become critically important. But be sure to read this first, if only to be sure you enter homeownership with your eyes wide open:  Why your house is a terrible investment

Then to be sure you fully understand the financial ramifications in your particular situation, run the numbers as explained here: Rent v Owning, opportunity cost and running the numbers.

VTSAX is also where I’d put your investable cash flow, either from those dividends and your saved income or from all your income as you live on the dividends.

First, of course, fully fund your 401k and deducible IRA accounts.

Congratulations on your upcoming marriage and the awesome financial start!

Lars:

Awesome advice Jim, thanks for the attention. Love your idea about living off the dividends.

Clarifying question: would you invest the $75k in VTSAX in one lump purchase, or would you space it out somehow using dollar cost averaging? If so, is there a DCA time-segment strategy you would use in our case? (i.e. $5k every month for 15 months).

jlcollinsnh:

purse overflowing

Glad you like the living off the dividends idea, Lars. That’s what I’d do personally and it is what will get you to financial freedom fastest.

As for DCA (dollar cost averaging), I am not a fan. For three reasons:

1. It messes with your allocation. Initially with DCA you are way too cash heavy and then over time the balence shifts. Better to simply decide what allocation works best for your situation and then implement and maintain it.

2. You have a 50% chance of it working against you. If the market rises while you are DCA you’ll be paying progressively more for your shares. Of course, it could work the other way and by choosing DCA you are betting it will. So basically you are predicting the direction of the market in the short-term. That’s market timing and market timing is a loser’s game.

3. Since you are in the wealth building stage, as you invest new money over the months and years you are in fact stuck with a de facto DCA situation. This one you can’t avoid, but no sense adding to it with your cash on hand.

Make sense?

Lars:

I’ve never heard that reasoning against DCA, but it helps me feel better about dumping the money into VTSAX as a lump sum. It’s basically a bet that the index will be higher in 20-30 years than it is now. I’ll take that bet.

Thanks A TON for your help.

jlcollinsnh:

Yeah, DCA is one of those popular things designed to make people feel more comfortable without fully understanding the implications. This might help: Investing in a Raging Bull

It is far better in my view to take a little time to understand the market and how it really works.

Addendum #1: For more on luck and good fortune….

You make your own luck by JD Roth

What poker, basketball and Mike Whitaker taught me about luck

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Filed Under: Case Studies

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Comments

  1. Richard says

    February 17, 2014 at 2:25 pm

    DCA, in my opinion, is useful for sending in cash as you earn it. The time to DCA was over the years building up the $75k cash reserve and that time has now past. So the question is what to do with that cash today. If your asset allocation is to underweight in the stockmarket, well consider yourself “rebalancing” to the proper asset allocation today.

    For me, I have a small amount in cash. I dollar cost average from my current cash flow because I have no extra money to put in the stock market. On a monthly basis I have a pre-authorized withdrawal that goes into the stock market. Works for me.

    Reply
  2. Scott says

    February 17, 2014 at 4:45 pm

    For numbers, here’s a historical look at DCA vs LSI: https://pressroom.vanguard.com/nonindexed/7.23.2012_Dollar-cost_Averaging.pdf

    Academic literature tends to use “DCA” to mean “Money you have up front”, not the use I hear more from real people of “Putting in money every month as you earn it”.

    I tend to encourage short-length DCA even when you have all the money up front, since it helps people get started. Four equal parts over 4 quarters is (roughly) the same cost as procrastinating 6 months, so for peace of mind the 4% (or so on average) can be worth it.

    Reply
    • Richard says

      February 17, 2014 at 9:18 pm

      I stand corrected. Interesting difference. I guess I am lump sum investing on a monthly basis then.

      Reply
  3. DMDave says

    February 17, 2014 at 8:42 pm

    I think most people are confused with DCA’s meaning. If you’re working and buy ETF’s every month with your savings, that’s just automation, taking away people’s tendencies to market time, or to fidget asset allocation.

    Like Scott said, DCA really means breaking up the lump sum of money into smaller, equal sums, and invest the equal sums over a few months or a year. Most studies have shown that DCA doesn’t work as well as investing the whole lump sum, since US market shows positive gains 70% of time. As Larry Swedroe reasoned, stocks will only increase in price over the long term, so it makes sens to invest the whole lump sum. DCA is just a way to comfort the investor emotionally should there be a sudden bear market.

    Here are two articles from Larry Swedroe:

    http://tiny.cc/xxegbx

    and

    http://tiny.cc/azegbx

    Reply
  4. Done by Forty says

    February 18, 2014 at 10:40 am

    I love the reasoning for investing the money as a lump sum. That said, if DCA over a short period (3 months or 6 months) is what it takes to put all that money in the market, do that. That’s still preferential to waiting another 6 months or sitting on some portion of the cash indefinitely.

    Whatever method gets you to your goal AA is still a pretty good option.

    Reply
  5. Stéphane says

    February 18, 2014 at 9:21 pm

    Hi JL Collins,

    Always great to read your thoughts, thank you for sharing them 🙂

    I started writing about the way I manage my money, here it is if you want to read it:
    http://memymoney2.blogspot.ca

    Reply
  6. Shilpan says

    February 18, 2014 at 10:51 pm

    Lump sum investment handily beats DCA(Dollar cost averaging) by a wide margin. I think inept fund managers have devised this scheme of constant cash flow to persuade ignorant money fools that by dollar cost averaging you can get better return due to market fluctuations..

    This is why Vanguard hardly gets any mentions on CNBC..

    https://pressroom.vanguard.com/nonindexed/7.23.2012_Dollar-cost_Averaging.pdf

    Reply
  7. Will Murphey says

    February 19, 2014 at 1:28 am

    My wife and I retired early together at 37 two year ago. I wish I had not fully funded my 401K during our earning years as I would love to have access to the money today to invest in another rental property. I should have only invested up to my companies match and then invested the rest elsewhere.

    Reply
    • jlcollinsnh says

      February 19, 2014 at 1:38 pm

      Hi Will…

      It is always tough implementing long-term strategies and years later finding our needs/interests have changed. Perhaps some of the ideas described here will help:

      https://jlcollinsnh.com/2013/12/05/stocks-part-xx-early-retirement-withdrawal-strategies-and-roth-conversion-ladders-from-a-mad-fientist/

      Good luck!

      Reply
      • Will Murphey says

        February 19, 2014 at 9:02 pm

        Thanks for the tip! I read the link and will dig into the conversion strategy.

        Reply
  8. Mrs EconoWiser says

    February 20, 2014 at 5:28 am

    Uhoh, we are doing the DCA (ECA in our case) thing right now…I’ll talk to the hubby about it!

    Reply
  9. MoneyAhoy says

    February 26, 2014 at 4:25 pm

    I think this article is spot on. Statistically, DCA is not the best decision if you have a lump sum. Trying to avoid losses by DCAing is timing the market, which we all know is a fools errand.

    Reply

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      • Case Study #8: Ron's mother - she's doin' all right!
    • ► January (4)
      • roundup: Some random cool things
      • Stocks — Part XXI: Investing with Vanguard for Europeans
      • Case Study #7: What it looks like when everything financial goes wrong
      • 1st Annual Louis Rukeyser Memorial Market Prediction Contest 2013 results, and my forecast for 2014
  • ► 2013 (41)
    • ► December (4)
      • Closing up for the Holidays, see you in 2014
      • Betterment: a simpler path to wealth
      • Case Study 6: Helping an ill and elderly parent
      • Stocks -- Part XX: Early Retirement Withdrawal Strategies and Roth Conversion Ladders from a Mad Fientist
    • ► November (3)
      • Death, Taxes, Estate Plans, Probate and Prob8
      • Case Study #5: Zero to 2.6 million in 25 years
      • Case Study #4: Using the 4% rule and asset allocations.
    • ► October (3)
      • Republic Wireless and my $19 per month phone plan
      • Case Study #3: Let's get Tom to Latin America!
      • The Stock Series gets its own page
    • ► September (2)
      • Case Study #2: Joe -- off to a fast start!
      • Chautauqua 2013: A Week of Dreams
    • ► August (1)
      • Closing up shop plus an opening at Chautauqua, my new podcast, phone, book and other random cool stuff
    • ► July (1)
      • They Will Kill You For Your Shoes!
    • ► June (4)
      • Stocks -- Part VIII-b: Should you avoid your company's 401k?
      • Shilpan's Seven Habits to Live More with Less
      • Stocks -- Part XIX: How to think about money
      • My path for my kid -- the first 10 years
    • ► May (5)
      • Why your house is a terrible investment
      • Stocks — Part XVIII: Investing in a raging bull
      • Dining with the Ghosts of Sarah Bernhardt and Alfons Mucha
      • How we finally got the house sold
      • Stocks — Part XVII: What if you can't buy VTSAX? Or even Vanguard?
    • ► April (4)
      • Greetings from Prague & a computer question
      • Swimming with Tigers, a 2nd chance on the Chautauqua, a financial article gets it wrong and I'm off to Prague
      • Storage, Moving and Movers
      • Homeless, and a bit on the strategy of dollar cost averaging
    • ► March (4)
      • Wild Turkeys, Motorcycles, Dining Room Sets & Greed
      • Roots v. Wings: considering home ownership
      • How about that stock market?!
      • The Blog has New Clothes
    • ► February (5)
      • Meet Mr. Money Mustache, JD Roth, Cheryl Reed & me for a Chautauqua in Ecuador
      • High School Poetry, Carnival, cool ads and random pictures that caught my eye
      • Consignment Shops: Best business model ever?
      • Cafes
      • Stocks -- Part XVI: Index Funds are really just for lazy people, right?
    • ► January (5)
      • Social Security: How secure and when to take it
      • Fighting giraffes, surreal landscapes, dancing with unicorns and restoring a Vanagon
      • My plan for 2013
      • VITA, income taxes and the IRS
      • How to be a stock market guru and get on MSNBC
  • ► 2012 (53)
    • ► December (6)
      • See you next year....until then: The Origin of Life, Life on Other Worlds, Mechanical Graveyards, Great Art, Alternative Lifestyles and Finding Freedom
      • Stocks -- Part XV: Target Retirement Funds, the simplest path to wealth of all
      • Stocks -- Part XIV: Deflation, the ugly escort of Depressions.
      • Stocks Part XIV: Deflation, the ugly escort of Depressions.
      • Stocks -- Part XIII: The 4% rule, withdrawal rates and how much can I spend anyway?
      • How I learned to stop worrying about the Fiscal Cliff and you can too.
    • ► November (2)
      • Rent v. owning: A couple of case studies in Ecuador
      • So, what does a month in Ecuador cost anyway?
    • ► October (4)
      • See you in December....
      • Meet me in Ecuador?
      • The Podcast: You can hear me now.
      • Stocks -- Part XII: Bonds
    • ► September (6)
      • Stocks -- Part XI: International Funds
      • The Smoother Path to Wealth
      • Case Study #I: Putting the Simple Path to Wealth into Action
      • Tales of Bolivia: Calle de las Brujas
      • Stocks -- Part X: What if Vanguard gets Nuked?
      • Travels in South America: It was the best of times....
    • ► August (1)
      • Home again
    • ► June (4)
      • Yellow Fever, closing up shop for the summer and heading to Peru y Bolivia
      • I could not have said it better myself...
      • Stocks -- Part IX: Why I don't like investment advisors
      • Happy Birthday, jlcollinsnh; and thanks for the gift Mr. MM!
    • ► May (6)
      • Stocks -- Part VIII: The 401K, 403b, TSP, IRA & Roth Buckets
      • Mr. Money Mustache
      • The College Conundrum
      • Stocks -- Part VII: Can everyone really retire a millionaire?
      • Stocks -- Part VI: Portfolio ideas to build and keep your wealth
      • Stocks -- Part V: Keeping it simple, considerations and tools
    • ► April (6)
      • Stocks -- Part IV: The Big Ugly Event, Deflation and a bit on Inflation
      • Stocks -- Part III: Most people lose money in the market.
      • Stocks -- Part II: The Market Always Goes Up
      • Stocks -- Part 1: There's a major market crash coming!!!! and Dr. Lo can't save you.
      • You can eat my Vindaloo, mega lottery, Blondie, Noa, Israel Kamakawiwo 'Ole, art, film and a ride on the Space Shuttle
      • Where in the world are you?
    • ► March (7)
      • How I lost money in real estate before it was fashionable, Part V: Sold! and the taxman cometh.
      • How I lost money in real estate before it was fashionable, Part IV: I become a Landlord.
      • How I lost money in real estate before it was fashionable, Part III: The Battle is Joined.
      • How I lost money in real estate before it was fashionable, Part II: The Limits of the Law.
      • How I lost money in real estate before it was fashionable, Part I: Impossibly Naive.
      • You, too, can be conned
      • Armageddon and the value of practical skills
    • ► February (6)
      • Rent v. Owning Your Home, opportunity cost and running some numbers
      • The Casanova Kid, a Shit Knife, a Good Book, Having No Regrets, Dark Matter and a bit of Magic
      • What Poker, Basketball and Mike Whitaker taught me about Luck
      • How to Give like a Billionaire
      • Go ahead, make my day
      • Muk Finds Success in Tahiti
    • ► January (5)
      • Travels with "Esperando un Camino"
      • Beanie Babies, Naked Barbie, American Pickers and Old Coots
      • Selling the House and Adventures in Staging
      • The bashing of Index Funds, Jack Bogle and a Jedi dog trick
      • Magic Beans
  • ► 2011 (22)
    • ► December (1)
      • Dividend Growth Investing
    • ► November (2)
      • The Mummy's head, Particle Physics and "Knocking on Heaven's Door"
      • "It's Better in the Wind" or why I ride a motorcycle
    • ► October (1)
      • Lazy Days and School Days
    • ► July (2)
      • The road to Zanzibar sometimes goes thru Ecuador...
      • Johnny wins the lotto and heads to Paris
    • ► June (16)
      • Chainsaws, Elm Trees and paying for College
      • Stuff I’ve failed at: the early years
      • Snatching Victory from the Jaws of Defeat
      • The. Worst. Used. Car. Ever.
      • Top Ten reasons your future is so bright it hurts my eyes to look at it
      • The Most Dangerous Words Your Customer Can Say
      • How not to drown in The Sea of Assholes
      • What we own and why we own it
      • The Ten Sales Commandments
      • My ever so formal and oh so dry CV
      • How I failed my daughter and a simple path to wealth
      • The Myth of Motivation
      • Why you need F-you money
      • My short attention span
      • Why I can’t pick winning stocks, and you can’t either
      • The Monk and the Minister

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