JLCollinsnh

The Simple Path to Wealth

  • Stock Series
  • Homeownership
  • Case Studies
  • Stuff I Recommend
  • Books
  • Interviews
  • About
  • Calculators & Tools
You are here: Home / Money / Magic Beans

Magic Beans

by jlcollinsnh 18 Comments - Updated: May 10, 2015

For supposedly rational creatures we humans seem irrationally drawn to Magic Beans.  Being a geezer I’ve been around long enough to see quite a few flavors come and go.  What they all have in common is that by the time you start reading about them everywhere, the end is near.

Let’s see…

I remember Growth Stocks were all the rage awhile back.

Why, any management worth its salt should be able to plow profits back into the business and reach even greater heights.  Value Stocks that paid dividends?  Clearly run by managements with no vision, so lacking in ability that they could think of nothing better to do with profits than to pay them out.  You want growth!  Find companies with “forward thinking” (what a wonderful phrase!) leaders skilled in deploying capital.

Growth Stocks.  You couldn’t go to a party without some guy telling you about his latest killing.  Left everything in the dust.  Until they didn’t.

I remember Actively Managed Funds.

The investment world is littered with the remains of once super-star fund managers.*

I remember Houses.

Opps.  Strike a nerve?  Yep, stocks and bonds went up and down but houses?  Houses could only go up.  See people will always need a place to live, right?  Seemed to make sense at the time.  Why banks, and how could they ever be wrong, would even loan you money on all your equity.  You could cash out profits and still live in the place.  What could possibly go awry?

I’m sure glad I learned how to lose money in real estate back in the 80s and before it was fashionable.   Saved me a bundle in avoiding this latest debacle.

I remember Gold.

How could I not?  Every time I turned on the TV, opened the paper or listened to the radio people were spending huge sums of advertising money to tell me I, too, could get rich buying (preferably from them) Gold.  It is, after all, the one true store of value through human history.   There was even one place that offered to sell it to you and then, for a fee, store it for you as well.  You never even had to see the stuff.  Mmm, think about that for a moment.  Yikes.

A few weeks back it was pushing $2000 an ounce on its way to $5000.  Or $10,000.  Or, well, $1566 as of year end and falling.

I remember (reading about) Tulip Bulbs.

You can too:  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania

Now?  Now it seems everywhere I turn the new flavor of Bean is Dividend Investing or, even more impressively, The Dividend Aristocrats.  Here’s an example:

http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2012/01/02/guest-posting-the-dividend-aristocrats/

Go ahead.  Head on over there and have a read.  It is clear and well written.  Take some time to poke around Mr. MM’s site as well.  Its a good one.

Welcome back.  Now here’s my 2 cents:

https://jlcollinsnh.com/2011/12/27/dividend-growth-investing/

As I mentioned at the end of that post, I actually made some money last year riding the Div-Stock wave.  Mmmm, with all this new popularity I should be taking my chips off the table soon.  No better sign than the end is near for them.

So no Magic Beans in The Dividend Aristocrats, but they likely won’t be as poisonous as some of the other Beans.  You’ll just lag behind the market over the next decade.  In fact here’s a bet that will likely make you more money:  Within 5 years you’ll be reading about how Growth Stocks are the sure path to prosperity and Value (dividend) stocks are for losers who can’t do the simple home work of analyzing the good stocks.  This will be wrong, too.

What is poisonous in The Dividend Aristocrats post is this:

“For a great primer on valuing stocks, check out the Intelligent Investor, by Warren Buffett’s mentor, Benjamin Graham. Read it, and then get to work combing the Aristocrats for bargains.”

It is a great book and by all means take the time to read it.  But remember, when Graham wrote it, Index Funds would not be invented for several more decades and mutual funds were few and far between.  Analyzing and choosing individual stocks was the only option.

But now, thank you Jack Bogle, we have index funds.  With these we can own the entire market and outperform over time all but the rarest of professional money managers.

This idea that if you read a few books and study what Warren Buffet has done you, too, will outperform the market is, to steal a phrase from Sean’s dad, Horse Hockey.  Dangerous horse hockey at that.

People have been trying for decades and yet, there is still only one Warren.  Think about it this way:

Remember Muhammad Ali?

The Warren Buffet of Boxing in his day.  You and I could have followed his training regiment, maybe even engaged Angelo Dundee to show us the ropes.  We could have gotten in top shape, done all our homework.  Learned the “sweet science.”  And, after all that effort, would you climb in the ring with Joe Frazier or George Foreman or Sonny Liston?

Not me.  I’m no Ali.  Or Warren.  Neither are you. (Unless of course you are, in which case:  Welcome back.)

You know what Warren Buffet recommends for individual investors?  Broad based Index Funds.  Graham, were he still alive, would too.

A little humility goes a long way in saving your ass and your stash.

*Addendum: At various points on this blog I suggest only about 20% of active managers out-perform the index. That’s being a bit generous.

This is a ball park figure based on the many articles on this I’ve come across on this over the years. In fact you can Google this question and find several falling around this percentage. I’m not sure why they vary. Some look at different time frames. Some at different metrics. Some factor in costs, some don’t.

Clearly it is easier to get lucky and outperform the shorter the time you need to do it. Even I called the market almost exactly last year, and I can assure you it was no more than luck: :) https://jlcollinsnh.com/2014/01/01/1st-annual-louis-rukeyser-memorial-market-prediction-contest-2013-results-and-your-chance-to-enter-for-2014/

Vanguard has done research on this looking at a 15-year time frame:
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insights/article/infographic-outperformance-112013
In it they point out that 45% of actively managed funds fail to even survive over that time, let alone outperform. Only 18% both survived and outperformed. And even those frequently had long periods of underperformance.

So even if you are lucky enough to pick one of the out-performers, it will be tough to live with.

This article references studies done for an even longer period: 1976-2006, 30 years: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/almost-no-one-can-beat-the-market-2013-10-25

The results are even more shocking. As the article says:
“Barras, Scaillet and Wermers tracked 2,076 actively managed U.S. domestic equity mutual funds between 1976 and 2006.

“And — are you sitting down? Only 0.6% — you read that right, 0.6% — showed any true skill at beating the market consistently, ‘statistically indistinguishable from zero,’ the three researchers concluded.”

On reflection, calling the out-performers at 20% I am too generously off the mark. :)

Read Next from JL

Subscribe to JL’s Newsletter

Important Resources

  • Talent Stacker is a resource that I learned about through my work with Jonathan and Brad at ChooseFI, and first heard about Salesforce as a career option in an episode where they featured Bradley Rice on the Podcast. In that episode, Bradley shared how he reached FI quickly thanks to his huge paychecks and discipline in keeping his expenses low. Jonathan teamed up with Bradley to build Talent Stacker, and they have helped more than 1,000 students from all walks of life complete the program and land jobs like clockwork, earning double or even triple their old salaries using a Salesforce certification to break into a no-code tech career.
  • Credit Cards are like chain saws. Incredibly useful. Incredibly dangerous. Resolve to pay in full each month and never carry a balance. Do that and they can be great tools. Here are some of the very best for travel hacking, cash back and small business rewards.
  • Personal Capital is a free tool to manage and evaluate your investments. With great visuals you can track your net worth, asset allocation, and portfolio performance, including costs. At a glance you'll see what's working and what you might want to change. Here's my full review.
  • Betterment is my recommendation for hands-off investors who prefer a DIFM (Do It For Me) approach. It is also a great tool for reaching short-term savings goals. Here is my Betterment Review
  • NewRetirement offers cool tools to help guide you in answering the question: Do I have enough money to retire? And getting started is free. Sign up and you will be offered two paths into their retirement planner. I was also on their podcast and you can check that out here:Video version, Podcast version.
  • Tuft & Needle (T&N) helps me sleep at night. They are a very cool company with a great product. Here’s my review of what we are currently sleeping on: Our Walnut Frame and Mint Mattress.
  • Vanguard.com

Filed Under: Money

« Dividend Growth Investing
The bashing of Index Funds, Jack Bogle and a Jedi dog trick »

Comments

  1. Lee- EntrpreneursKorner says

    January 2, 2012 at 7:02 pm

    Nice post, thoroughly enjoyed it. and your right we can train and be like them all we want, but we won’t be able to because we all have our own traits and we have to use ours to our own advantage just as they used theirs.

    Reply
    • jlcollinsnh says

      January 2, 2012 at 9:11 pm

      Great point, Lee.

      Reply
  2. Sean says

    January 2, 2012 at 7:59 pm

    Hello, sir. Enjoyed your response. And you are right to caution against thinking you can beat the market after only reading a few books (or blog posts 😉 ). I certainly did not mean to imply that in any way. (In my defense, I did say there are no shortcuts and you must do your homework.)

    You’re right – there are no magic beans in investing. The thing is, I regard blind index investing as the biggest set of magic beans of them all. The growing popularity of the notion that it’s “impossible” for individual investors to beat the market is puzzling to me, when it is provably false. Here’s one study to look at: “http://www.people.hbs.edu/jcoval/Papers/persist.pdf”

    In fact, it’s vastly easier for individual investors to beat the market than professional fund managers, because the professionals are subject to significant regulatory constraints and liquidity requirements, and because they typically have so much money they must put into play that they effectively cannot concentrate on a smaller number of stocks without moving the markets with their purchases. Individual investors have none of these handicaps.

    It’s not impossible to beat the market, but it isn’t easy, either. Index investing is probably the right choice for most investors, because few are willing to do what it takes to succeed. But you CAN succeed if you ARE willing to do what it takes.

    Reply
    • jlcollinsnh says

      January 2, 2012 at 9:02 pm

      Hi Sean…

      Welcome and thanks for your response. Glad to have you over here.

      Hope my post didn’t come across as too harsh. I enjoyed your post. I suspect we have more to agree about than otherwise.

      My comment regarding reading a few books was less directed at you personally than the overall group of writers who casually paint picking individual stocks, dividend or otherwise, as easy. It is not. It is vanishingly difficult. Is it possible? Perhaps. But for every one who succeeds there will be 10,000 left in the road bleeding.

      We need to be very careful in our advice, seems to me.

      Is index investing perfect? Perhaps not, but to call it “blind” is to misunderstand the approach. Like Democracy, it is simply better than the alternatives.

      While I don’t agree with the opening premise of your third paragraph, you are absolutely correct in your description of some the obstacles pros face. That individuals don’t face these same obstacles, however, doesn’t help them overcome those they do.

      Individuals also don’t have access to the advantages of the pros. If you’ll indulge me in quoting myself:

      “Convinced I could win this game, after all I’d just bought a stock that tripled, I even took a major pay cut to join an investment research firm mid-career. There I was, surrounded by exceedingly bright people. Each focused on one, maybe two industries and perhaps 6-10 stocks. More than one had been honored in the trade press as “Analyst of the Year” for their work.

      “They knew each of these companies inside and out. They knew the top executives. They knew the middle-managers and the front line people. They knew the customers. They knew the suppliers. They knew the cute receptionists. They spoke to them all weekly. Sometimes daily.

      “They still didn’t get info before anyone else (that’s insider trading, fool proof and, ah, illegal). But they did know exactly when and how the info would be released. Of course, so did every other competent analyst around the world. Any new information was reflected in the stock price within minutes.

      “They issued reports our institutional investor clients paid dearly for. And yet, predicting stock performance remained frustratingly elusive.”
      https://jlcollinsnh.com/2011/06/02/why-i-can’t-pick-winning-stocks-and-you-can’t-either/

      Sonny Liston’s shortcomings didn’t make it any easier for the next guy facing Ali. Was it possible to beat Ali? Yep. Would I have gotten in the ring with him, or advised you to? Nope.

      Cheers!

      JC

      Reply
      • Sean says

        January 2, 2012 at 10:15 pm

        I hope I didn’t come off as too harsh either 😉 Passions always seem to run high on this topic. I think you’re right that we can probably agree on more than we disagree.

        Do check out that paper I linked to, though. There’s a good deal of evidence there that the rate of investors that can get outsized returns is closer to 1 in 10 than 1 in 10,000. I tend to discount studies of professional money managers, since I believe their limitations outweigh many if not most of their advantages, ironically for precisely the same reason that many believe beating the market is impossible: their informational advantage is not that great. Individual investors, on the other hand, are much better able to ACT on information.

        You might also check out these posts from Early Retirement Extreme:

        http://earlyretirementextreme.com/the-cult-of-index-investing-why-it-will-be-gone-in-ten-years.html

        http://earlyretirementextreme.com/trading-different-players-and-beating-the-market.html

        That said, I still think index investing is a reasonable strategy for most people, especially when combined with steady dollar cost averaging, as you mentioned over at MMM. I even do it myself in my 401(k) (of course my only other option there is managed funds;) ).

        Cheers,
        Sean

        Reply
        • jlcollinsnh says

          January 2, 2012 at 10:57 pm

          Not at all, Sean…

          …and you are welcome here anytime.

          Glad to hear you do a little index investing. and, as I’ve confessed, I do still play at picking stocks. but even when, like 2011, they go my way I am always keenly aware of how large a role luck played and how easily I could have been left bleeding on the side of the road.

          You are right about Jacob over at ERE. He’s no fan of indexing and I always had the sense that he might be one of the few who could actually beat the indexes. Maybe you are, too. But even if the odds are 10 to 1, I cringe at pointing folks down that path.

          But what Jacob, MMM and I all agree on is: Spend less than you earn, invest the balance and avoid debt. You, too, I’ll bet. 🙂

          Reply
          • Mark says

            January 6, 2012 at 12:52 pm

            Being a Boglehead myself, I read the ERE article to see what he had to say. I had to sigh when I got to this: “Index investing is basically equivalent to a buy and hold strategy with very low turnover of a few large growth companies.” This is absurd. The S&P 500 is just one index. There are indexes for large cap, small cap, growth, value, US, Europe, emerging markets, REITs, every kind of bond, you name it. Index investing is about choosing an asset allocation that matches your need and willingness to take risk, and using low-cost index funds to hold the most diversified position possible within those asset classes. Why is it that the people bashing “index investing” have so little understanding of what it is?

          • jlcollinsnh says

            January 6, 2012 at 1:31 pm

            Hi Mark…

            Always good to meet a fellow Boglehead. Warren Buffet is typically helded up, with good reason, as the pinnacle of all that’s good in investment. He certainly has an impressive record.

            But for my money (pun intended), no one has done more for the individual investor than Jack Bogle. With Vanguard and its unique structure that benefits shareholders to Index Funds he is a financial saint and a personal hero.

            You are, of course, correct. The S&P Index is only the first of its kind and but now is one of many. Each tailored to a unique need. As mentioned elsewhere I use/need only three, plus a money market fund.

            As to why people bash them with little understanding, all I can say is that seems to be a common human trait.

            I have a lot of respect for Jacob. He’s clearly very bright and thoughtful. Why he choose to dismiss Indexing in the manner he does, baffles me.

            As to why people who do take the time to understand indexing and who still reject it, I think there is a lot of psychology behind it:

            1) It is very hard for smart people to accept that they can’t outperform something that basically buys every thing. It seems it should be so simple to spot the good companies and avoid the bad. It’s not. This was my personal hangup and I wasted years and $$$ in the pursuit of outperformance.

            2) To buy the index is to accept “average.” People have trouble seeing themselves or anything in their life as average. Of course, in this case average puts you somewhere in the top 80% or so of funds.

            3) The financial media is filled with stories of individuals and pros who have out performed the index for a year or two or three. Or in the rare case, like Buffet, who has done it over time. But investing is a long term gain. You’ll have no better luck picking and switching winning managers than winning stocks over the decades.

            4) People underestimate the drag of costs to investing. 1 or 1.5 or 2 percent seems so low, especially in a good year. As Bogle says, performance comes and goes. Expenses are always there.

            5) People want quick results. They want to brag about their stock that tripled or their fund that beat the S&P. Letting an Index work its magic over the years isn’t very exciting. It is only very profitable.

            6) People want exciting. Heck, I’ve even admitted to playing with individual stocks with a (very) small fraction of my stach. But I let the Indexes do the heavy lifting and they are the ones that got me F-you Money.

            7) Finally, and perhaps most influential, there is a huge business dedicated to selling advice and brokering trades to people who believe they can outperform. Money managers, mutual fund companies, stock analysts, newsletters, blogs, brokers. Billlions are at stake and the drum beat of marketing the idea of outperformance is relentless. In short we are brainwashed.

  3. Steve says

    July 12, 2012 at 8:36 am

    http://www.fool.co.uk/news/investing/2012/03/22/buffett-takes-on-the-hedge-funds.aspx
    Your quite right.Warren Buffett has a bet on to prove it.
    It will be interesting to see the outcome

    Reply
  4. kyle says

    December 18, 2013 at 12:03 pm

    Hi Jim,
    I may have misunderstood you, but are you implying that dividend investing could be considered the next ‘magic bean?’ What are your thoughts on individuals who are betting their retirements on dividend stocks/payouts? (e.g. Dividend Mantra). Seems risky from my POV.

    Reply
    • jlcollinsnh says

      December 18, 2013 at 12:48 pm

      Hi Kyle…

      Dividend investing has been one of the most popular “magic beans” in recent years, second only perhaps to gold.

      I’m not a fan. Here are just a couple of quick reasons:

      1. It is a strategy of picking individual stocks something that in and of itself is a loser’s game.
      2. It focuses a portfolio on only one narrow category of stocks: Large cap, dividend focused companies.
      3. It often assumes that these companies will somehow last forever. Google “The Nifty 50” and see how untrue this is.
      4. It often seems to assume that during downturns dividends won’t be cut. Companies try not to perhaps, but still do it all the time.

      For more: https://jlcollinsnh.com/2011/12/27/dividend-growth-investing/

      Reply
  5. Charlie says

    April 11, 2015 at 1:16 pm

    Mista Collins! I love your posts. Seriously.. highest praises to you! I take your stock series as gospel. I just read this post today on April 11, 2015 and this particular post turns out to be yet another gem. I compared on Morningstar website the SDY fund recommended in the MMM guest post back in January of 2012 with VTSAX. Here’s my findings on rate of return from Jan 2012 to the present:
    SDY: +46.16%
    VTSAX: +69.68%

    If one chose the dividend fund over total stock market index they’d have left a TON on the table! Peace and prosperity too you.

    Reply
    • jlcollinsnh says

      April 11, 2015 at 11:46 pm

      Thanks Charlie…

      Much appreciated!

      One word of caution however. Three years is a very short time to compare any two funds. Over a different three year period, it could have been SDY that outperformed. Sometimes dividend payers do. I’m sure there are sector finds out there that did better than VTSAX during that same time frame.

      I prefer VTSAX because it performs reliably over time, but I don’t expect it to outperform every other fund over any given time period.

      Make sense?

      Reply
      • Charlie says

        April 11, 2015 at 11:53 pm

        Absolutely agree. I compared those two funds in google finance charts from the same period as well. The cool thing about the google charts is it allows you to set a time frame (say 3 months or 3 years) and then to subsequently slide the scroll bar to compare that time period from different starting points in time. After doing that VTSAX was the winner in 95%+ of the time over 3 year periods dating back to the beginning of SDY.

        I do agree though that 3 years is a small sample size but even so it’s tough as nails to beat out VTSAX in any given 3 years! Happy investing!

        Reply
  6. Ben says

    August 21, 2015 at 5:43 pm

    One thing not often factored in to studies on actively managed funds is risk. When you own an actively managed fund, or pick your own stocks, you are automatically taking on more risk than if you were to own the market. Not sure if Vanguard’s study factored in risk but that 18% survival/out-performance figure might be pushing 0%, on a risk-adjusted basis.

    Reply
    • jlcollinsnh says

      August 22, 2015 at 11:14 pm

      Thanks Ben…

      Great point.

      Once you get out 30 years less than 1% outperform the index. Statistically, just so much noise. 😉

      Reply
  7. Mr Mark says

    February 28, 2018 at 3:10 am

    Great post. I think you could now append this post with a section on Cryptocurrencies as the ultimate imaginary magic beans!

    Reply
    • jlcollinsnh says

      February 28, 2018 at 1:22 pm

      Thanks, Mr. Mark!

      Here’s a guest post on cryptos:
      https://jlcollinsnh.com/2017/12/03/how-to-invest-in-bitcoin-like-benjamin-graham/

      Maybe I should add it as an addendum above…

      Reply

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

The Simple Path to Wealth Book by JL Collins

Important Resources

  • Talent Stacker or My Review
  • Recommended Credit Cards
  • Personal Capital or My Review
  • Betterment or My Review
  • NewRetirement
  • Tuft & Needle or My Review
  • Vanguard.com

More Helpful Links

  • My Manifesto
  • Financial Calculators
  • Ask Jlcollinsnh

Subscribe to JL’s Newsletter

Follow JLCollinsNH on TwitterJLCollinsNH On Twitter

  • Latest
  • Popular
  • Comments
  • Why your house is a terrible investment Why your house is a terrible investment
  • Things important, and unimportant Things important, and unimportant
  • Develop Your Skills and Talents Develop Your Skills and Talents
  • When Your Country Becomes a Global Outcast When Your Country Becomes a Global Outcast
  • Staying the Course in War-Time Staying the Course in War-Time
  • Pathfinders update from Hh Pathfinders update from Hh
  • A New Chapter for Chautauqua A New Chapter for Chautauqua
  • Today Week Month All
  • Why your house is a terrible investment Why your house is a terrible investment
  • Stocks — Part 1:  There’s a major market crash coming!!!!  and Dr. Lo can’t save you. Stocks -- Part 1: There's a major market crash coming!!!! and Dr. Lo can't save you.
  • How I failed my daughter and a simple path to wealth How I failed my daughter and a simple path to wealth
  • Stocks — Part VI:  Portfolio ideas to build and keep your wealth Stocks -- Part VI: Portfolio ideas to build and keep your wealth
  • Stocks — Part II:  The Market Always Goes Up Stocks -- Part II: The Market Always Goes Up
  • Why you need F-you money Why you need F-you money
  • Stocks — Part V:    Keeping it simple, considerations and tools Stocks -- Part V: Keeping it simple, considerations and tools
  • Today Week Month All
  • The Bond Experiment: Return to VBTLX The Bond Experiment: Return to VBTLX
  • Stocks — Part X:   What if Vanguard gets Nuked? Stocks -- Part X: What if Vanguard gets Nuked?
  • Stocks — Part XXIII: Selecting your asset allocation Stocks -- Part XXIII: Selecting your asset allocation
  • Time to sell? Time to sell?
  • Dividend Growth Investing Dividend Growth Investing
  • Stocks — Part V:    Keeping it simple, considerations and tools Stocks -- Part V: Keeping it simple, considerations and tools
Ajax spinner
Categories
  • Annual Louis Rukeyser Memorial Market Prediction Contest
  • Business
  • The Book: The Simple Path To Wealth
  • Cars and Motorcycles
  • Case Studies
  • Chautauqua
  • Education
  • Guest Posts
  • Homeownership
  • How I Lost Money in Real Estate before it was Fashionable
  • Life
  • Money
  • Q/A Posts
  • Random cool things that catch my eye
  • Stock Investing Series
  • Stuff I Recommend
  • Travels

Archives

  • ► 2023 (6)
    • ► March (1)
      • Why your house is a terrible investment
    • ► February (2)
      • Things important, and unimportant
      • Develop Your Skills and Talents
    • ► January (3)
      • When Your Country Becomes a Global Outcast
      • Staying the Course in War-Time
      • Pathfinders update from Hh
  • ► 2022 (12)
    • ► December (3)
      • A New Chapter for Chautauqua
      • Season's Greetings!!
      • Fun with numbers: Historic Stock Market Returns
    • ► October (1)
      • Let’s talk about what’s up with Bonds, and what ever else you’d like to ask me
    • ► August (1)
      • The Price of Security
    • ► July (1)
      • Case Study #17: Buying into the market right before a Bear
    • ► June (1)
      • Case Study #16: Helping dad with an inheritance
    • ► May (1)
      • Just inked a contract for my next book, and I want you to be a part of it!
    • ► April (1)
      • The Dinky Diner
    • ► March (1)
      • Chautauqua: A terrible business model
    • ► February (2)
      • Chautauqua is back for 2022!
      • JLCollinsnh.com Enters New Era
  • ► 2021 (14)
    • ► December (1)
      • Season's Greetings!!
    • ► November (2)
      • The new book is out!
      • Are bonds done?
    • ► October (1)
      • Guess what I just finally read for the first time...
    • ► September (1)
      • The negligence that led me to DIY investing
    • ► August (3)
      • Chainsaws and Credit Cards
      • Part XXXVI: Estate Planning 101 -- The Simple Path to an Estate Plan
      • The Simple Path to a Lucrative Career
    • ► July (1)
      • Help Wanted: a new book
    • ► June (1)
      • The Top 9 (Bad) Arguments Against Bitcoin
    • ► May (2)
      • Collins on Crypto
      • The Alfred Hitchcock Path to FI
    • ► April (1)
      • Time to sell?
    • ► February (1)
      • Mariah International: All that glitters…
  • ► 2020 (11)
    • ► December (1)
      • Season's Greetings!!
    • ► June (1)
      • How to give when you have a business
    • ► April (4)
      • Investing with Vanguard for Europeans: 2020 update
      • Part XVII-B: ETF vs. Mutual Fund -- What's the difference?
      • Reviewing the comments on my post of April 1st
      • Why I will no longer be writing this blog
    • ► March (4)
      • My move from VMMXX to VBTLX
      • COVID-19: The unvarnished truth from Doc G.
      • Chautauqua sits out 2020
      • Taking advantage of Mr. Bear
    • ► February (1)
      • Mr. Bear, Podcasts, a good book and why I should be in 100% stocks
  • ► 2019 (11)
    • ► November (4)
      • How we bought our new car
      • The House Hacking Strategy
      • What does buying a new car really cost over the years?
      • Why we bought a brand new car
    • ► August (1)
      • A Guided Meditation for When the Stock Market Is Dropping
    • ► June (2)
      • 7 Days in Heaven: or Why Slowing Down Will Get You There Sooner
      • Quit Like a Millionaire
    • ► March (1)
      • Stocks -- Part XXXV: Investing for Seven Generations
    • ► February (1)
      • Chautauqua 2019 - UK & Portugal - Tickets Now Available
    • ► January (2)
      • Mr. Bogle passes
      • Financial Independence Case Study: How to Reach FI in Your 30s
  • ► 2018 (16)
    • ► December (1)
      • Happy Holidays! and a bit on Mr. Market
    • ► November (3)
      • Truly Passive Real Estate Investing
      • Car Talk: An update on Steve and looking at Leafs
      • Chautauqua 2018 Greece: A week for the gods!
    • ► October (1)
      • On Twitter, gone for Chautauqua and dark on comments till November
    • ► September (2)
      • What we own and why we own it: 2018
      • Tuft & Needle: Our Walnut Frame and Mint Mattress
    • ► August (1)
      • Kibanda Part 5: Pretty, and pretty much done
    • ► June (3)
      • Stocks--Part XXXIV: How to unload your unwanted stocks and funds
      • Tracking your holdings
      • Stocks -- Part XXXIII: Optimism
    • ► May (2)
      • Kibanda Part 4: Quicksand!
      • My Talk at Google, Playing with FIRE and other Chautauqua connections
    • ► March (1)
      • Stocks -- Part XXXII: Why you should not be in the stock market
    • ► February (1)
      • Chautauqua 2018: Mt. Olympus, Greece
    • ► January (1)
      • An International Portfolio from The Escape Artist
  • ► 2017 (15)
    • ► December (2)
      • The Bond Experiment: Return to VBTLX
      • How to Invest in Bitcoin like Benjamin Graham
    • ► October (1)
      • Kibanda Part 3: Running the numbers
    • ► September (1)
      • Sleeping soundly thru a market crash: The Wasting Asset Retirement Model
    • ► August (2)
      • Stocks -- Part XXXI: Too hot. Too cold. Not pure enough.
      • Kibanda, Part 2: Negotiating the deal
    • ► July (2)
      • Time Machine and the future returns for stocks
      • Kibanda: Mr. Anti-house buys his dream house
    • ► June (2)
      • Is there an interior designer in the house?
      • The Simple Path to Wealth goes Audio!
    • ► May (1)
      • Life on the Beach
    • ► April (1)
      • Sell! Sell!! Sell!!! Sell?
    • ► March (1)
      • Vicki comes to Chautauqua: United Kingdom
    • ► January (2)
      • Chautauqua - Ecuador 2017 open for reservations
      • Chautauqua - United Kingdom: August 2017
  • ► 2016 (22)
    • ► December (3)
      • Season's Greetings and other cool stuff
      • Angel Investing, or Angel Philanthropy?
      • Mr. Bogle and me
    • ► November (1)
      • Where did you learn about money?
    • ► October (2)
      • Buy Your Freedom; Rent the Rest
      • So, what do you drive?
    • ► September (2)
      • Stocks -- Part XXX: jlcollinsnh vs. Vanguard
      • A visit to the Frugalwoods
    • ► August (1)
      • What the naysayers are missing
    • ► July (1)
      • Reviews of The Simple Path to Wealth; gone for summer
    • ► June (2)
      • The Simple Path to Wealth is now Published!
      • A peek into The Simple Path to Wealth
    • ► May (1)
      • It's better in the wind. Still.
    • ► April (3)
      • Cool things to check out while I'm gone
      • Stocks — Part XXIX: How to save money for college. Or not.
      • Help Wanted: The Book
    • ► March (1)
      • F-You Money: John Goodman v. jlcollinsnh
    • ► February (2)
      • Q&A - V: The Women of Amphissa
      • jlcollinsnh gets a new suit
    • ► January (3)
      • Chautauqua 2015 Reviews, 2016 registration open
      • Case Study #15: The Scavenger Life -- Freedom first, then Financial Independence
      • 3rd Annual (2015) Louis Rukeyser Memorial Market Prediction Contest results, and my forecast for 2016
  • ► 2015 (18)
    • ► December (2)
      • Q&A - IV: Strawberry Patch
      • Seasons Greetings! and other cool stuff
    • ► October (2)
      • Personal Capital; and how to unload your unwanted stocks and funds
      • Stockchoker: A look back at what your investment might have been
    • ► September (2)
      • Case Study #14: To Dream the Impossible Dream (and then realize it)
      • Hotel Living
    • ► August (1)
      • Mr. Market's Wild Ride
    • ► June (4)
      • Gone for Summer, an important note on comments and random cool stuff that caught my eye
      • Around the world with an Aussie Biker
      • Case Study #13: The Power of Flexibility
      • Stocks — Part VIII: The 401(k), 403(b), TSP, IRA & Roth Buckets
    • ► March (2)
      • Stocks -- Part XXVIII: Debt - The Unacceptable Burden
      • Chautauqua October 2015: Times Two!
    • ► February (2)
      • YNAB: Best Place to Work Ever?
      • Case Study #12: Escaping a soul-crushing job before you're 70
    • ► January (3)
      • Case Study #11: John, a small business owner in transition
      • Trish and Stan take an Intrepid Sailing Voyage
      • 2014 Annual Louis Rukeyser Memorial Market Prediction Contest results, and my forecast for 2015
  • ► 2014 (29)
    • ► December (2)
      • Diamonds and Happy Holidays!
      • Micro-Lending with Kiva
    • ► November (3)
      • Chautauqua February 7-14, 2015: Escape from Winter
      • Stocks -- Part XXVII: Why I Don’t Like Dollar Cost Averaging
      • Jack Bogle and the Presidential Medal of Freedom
    • ► October (3)
      • Tuft & Needle: A better path to sleep
      • Nightmare on Wall Street: Will the Blood Bath Continue?
      • Help Wanted
    • ► September (1)
      • Chautauqua 2014: Lightning strikes again!
    • ► August (2)
      • Stocks -- Part XXVI: Pulling the 4%
      • Stocks -- Part XXV: HSAs, more than just a way to pay your medical bills.
    • ► July (3)
      • Stocks -- Part XXIV: RMDs, the ugly surprise at the end of the tax-deferred rainbow
      • Summer travels, writing, reading and other amusements
      • Moto X, my new Republic Wireless Phone
    • ► June (1)
      • Stocks -- Part XXIII: Selecting your asset allocation
    • ► May (1)
      • Stocks -- Part XXII: Stepping away from REITs
    • ► April (3)
      • Q&A III: Vamos
      • Q&A II: Salamat
      • Q&A I: Gaijin Shogun
    • ► March (2)
      • Top 10 posts
      • Cafe No Se
    • ► February (4)
      • Chautauqua 2014 preview, closing up for travel and other random cool things that caught my eye of late.
      • Case Study #10: Should Josiah buy his parents a house?
      • Case Study #9: Lars -- maximizing some good fortune and considering "dollar cost averaging"
      • Case Study #8: Ron's mother - she's doin' all right!
    • ► January (4)
      • roundup: Some random cool things
      • Stocks — Part XXI: Investing with Vanguard for Europeans
      • Case Study #7: What it looks like when everything financial goes wrong
      • 1st Annual Louis Rukeyser Memorial Market Prediction Contest 2013 results, and my forecast for 2014
  • ► 2013 (40)
    • ► December (4)
      • Closing up for the Holidays, see you in 2014
      • Betterment: a simpler path to wealth
      • Case Study 6: Helping an ill and elderly parent
      • Stocks -- Part XX: Early Retirement Withdrawal Strategies and Roth Conversion Ladders from a Mad Fientist
    • ► November (3)
      • Death, Taxes, Estate Plans, Probate and Prob8
      • Case Study #5: Zero to 2.6 million in 25 years
      • Case Study #4: Using the 4% rule and asset allocations.
    • ► October (3)
      • Republic Wireless and my $19 per month phone plan
      • Case Study #3: Let's get Tom to Latin America!
      • The Stock Series gets its own page
    • ► September (2)
      • Case Study #2: Joe -- off to a fast start!
      • Chautauqua 2013: A Week of Dreams
    • ► August (1)
      • Closing up shop plus an opening at Chautauqua, my new podcast, phone, book and other random cool stuff
    • ► July (1)
      • They Will Kill You For Your Shoes!
    • ► June (4)
      • Stocks -- Part VIII-b: Should you avoid your company's 401k?
      • Shilpan's Seven Habits to Live More with Less
      • Stocks -- Part XIX: How to think about money
      • My path for my kid -- the first 10 years
    • ► May (4)
      • Stocks — Part XVIII: Investing in a raging bull
      • Dining with the Ghosts of Sarah Bernhardt and Alfons Mucha
      • How we finally got the house sold
      • Stocks — Part XVII: What if you can't buy VTSAX? Or even Vanguard?
    • ► April (4)
      • Greetings from Prague & a computer question
      • Swimming with Tigers, a 2nd chance on the Chautauqua, a financial article gets it wrong and I'm off to Prague
      • Storage, Moving and Movers
      • Homeless, and a bit on the strategy of dollar cost averaging
    • ► March (4)
      • Wild Turkeys, Motorcycles, Dining Room Sets & Greed
      • Roots v. Wings: considering home ownership
      • How about that stock market?!
      • The Blog has New Clothes
    • ► February (5)
      • Meet Mr. Money Mustache, JD Roth, Cheryl Reed & me for a Chautauqua in Ecuador
      • High School Poetry, Carnival, cool ads and random pictures that caught my eye
      • Consignment Shops: Best business model ever?
      • Cafes
      • Stocks -- Part XVI: Index Funds are really just for lazy people, right?
    • ► January (5)
      • Social Security: How secure and when to take it
      • Fighting giraffes, surreal landscapes, dancing with unicorns and restoring a Vanagon
      • My plan for 2013
      • VITA, income taxes and the IRS
      • How to be a stock market guru and get on MSNBC
  • ► 2012 (53)
    • ► December (6)
      • See you next year....until then: The Origin of Life, Life on Other Worlds, Mechanical Graveyards, Great Art, Alternative Lifestyles and Finding Freedom
      • Stocks -- Part XV: Target Retirement Funds, the simplest path to wealth of all
      • Stocks -- Part XIV: Deflation, the ugly escort of Depressions.
      • Stocks Part XIV: Deflation, the ugly escort of Depressions.
      • Stocks -- Part XIII: The 4% rule, withdrawal rates and how much can I spend anyway?
      • How I learned to stop worrying about the Fiscal Cliff and you can too.
    • ► November (2)
      • Rent v. owning: A couple of case studies in Ecuador
      • So, what does a month in Ecuador cost anyway?
    • ► October (4)
      • See you in December....
      • Meet me in Ecuador?
      • The Podcast: You can hear me now.
      • Stocks -- Part XII: Bonds
    • ► September (6)
      • Stocks -- Part XI: International Funds
      • The Smoother Path to Wealth
      • Case Study #I: Putting the Simple Path to Wealth into Action
      • Tales of Bolivia: Calle de las Brujas
      • Stocks -- Part X: What if Vanguard gets Nuked?
      • Travels in South America: It was the best of times....
    • ► August (1)
      • Home again
    • ► June (4)
      • Yellow Fever, closing up shop for the summer and heading to Peru y Bolivia
      • I could not have said it better myself...
      • Stocks -- Part IX: Why I don't like investment advisors
      • Happy Birthday, jlcollinsnh; and thanks for the gift Mr. MM!
    • ► May (6)
      • Stocks -- Part VIII: The 401K, 403b, TSP, IRA & Roth Buckets
      • Mr. Money Mustache
      • The College Conundrum
      • Stocks -- Part VII: Can everyone really retire a millionaire?
      • Stocks -- Part VI: Portfolio ideas to build and keep your wealth
      • Stocks -- Part V: Keeping it simple, considerations and tools
    • ► April (6)
      • Stocks -- Part IV: The Big Ugly Event, Deflation and a bit on Inflation
      • Stocks -- Part III: Most people lose money in the market.
      • Stocks -- Part II: The Market Always Goes Up
      • Stocks -- Part 1: There's a major market crash coming!!!! and Dr. Lo can't save you.
      • You can eat my Vindaloo, mega lottery, Blondie, Noa, Israel Kamakawiwo 'Ole, art, film and a ride on the Space Shuttle
      • Where in the world are you?
    • ► March (7)
      • How I lost money in real estate before it was fashionable, Part V: Sold! and the taxman cometh.
      • How I lost money in real estate before it was fashionable, Part IV: I become a Landlord.
      • How I lost money in real estate before it was fashionable, Part III: The Battle is Joined.
      • How I lost money in real estate before it was fashionable, Part II: The Limits of the Law.
      • How I lost money in real estate before it was fashionable, Part I: Impossibly Naive.
      • You, too, can be conned
      • Armageddon and the value of practical skills
    • ► February (6)
      • Rent v. Owning Your Home, opportunity cost and running some numbers
      • The Casanova Kid, a Shit Knife, a Good Book, Having No Regrets, Dark Matter and a bit of Magic
      • What Poker, Basketball and Mike Whitaker taught me about Luck
      • How to Give like a Billionaire
      • Go ahead, make my day
      • Muk Finds Success in Tahiti
    • ► January (5)
      • Travels with "Esperando un Camino"
      • Beanie Babies, Naked Barbie, American Pickers and Old Coots
      • Selling the House and Adventures in Staging
      • The bashing of Index Funds, Jack Bogle and a Jedi dog trick
      • Magic Beans
  • ► 2011 (22)
    • ► December (1)
      • Dividend Growth Investing
    • ► November (2)
      • The Mummy's head, Particle Physics and "Knocking on Heaven's Door"
      • "It's Better in the Wind" or why I ride a motorcycle
    • ► October (1)
      • Lazy Days and School Days
    • ► July (2)
      • The road to Zanzibar sometimes goes thru Ecuador...
      • Johnny wins the lotto and heads to Paris
    • ► June (16)
      • Chainsaws, Elm Trees and paying for College
      • Stuff I’ve failed at: the early years
      • Snatching Victory from the Jaws of Defeat
      • The. Worst. Used. Car. Ever.
      • Top Ten reasons your future is so bright it hurts my eyes to look at it
      • The Most Dangerous Words Your Customer Can Say
      • How not to drown in The Sea of Assholes
      • What we own and why we own it
      • The Ten Sales Commandments
      • My ever so formal and oh so dry CV
      • How I failed my daughter and a simple path to wealth
      • The Myth of Motivation
      • Why you need F-you money
      • My short attention span
      • Why I can’t pick winning stocks, and you can’t either
      • The Monk and the Minister

© Copyright 2023 jlcollinsnh.com Privacy Policy Disclaimers