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You are here: Home / Money / Collins on Crypto

Collins on Crypto

by jlcollinsnh 81 Comments

Since I keep getting asked, here’s my take on…

It all feels very much like a religion to me. Believers revel in the glorious revealed truth of it. Nonbelievers think they are batshit crazy, and maybe dangerous.

I am not a believer, but I am intrigued.

Currency?

So far, cryptos are too volatile to serve well as actual currencies. After all you are unlikely to spend something you think is going to be worth dramatically more tomorrow. And you are unlikely to accept in payment something that might drop dramatically the next day.

The exception being mostly for criminal activities where the advantages of secrecy outweigh the issue of volatility. Will that change? Some are trying. Time will tell.

For now, cryptos are speculations, and potentially stores of wealth. Unlike a business or a piece of investment property, there is no intrinsic value in them.

Like gold, buyers are hoping in the future someone will pay more for it. So far that’s worked out rather well. But as we all should know, that is no guarantee for the future.

Disaster insurance?

Also like gold, some favor them for disaster insurance against something seriously going wrong in the world.

Of course, cryptos rely on our energy grids and internet remaining intact and stable. So if you are expecting a civilization melt-down, gold in hand might be your better choice.

Then again, if you expect a disaster that has you fleeing across borders — Crypto for the win!

Depends on the disaster you are expecting, I guess.

Energy hogs?

Creating and maintaining these things is breathtakingly energy intensive. Major infrastructure and environmental concerns are being expressed. I realize this is an ongoing debate, but as yet I have found the crypto folks unconvincing.

Too complicated?

These things are insanely complicated, at least for me. I’ve had them explained to me by smart people numerous times and at best I think I kinda maybe get the general idea. Perhaps.

But I don’t believe in investing in things I don’t understand.

By most accounts, I’m a reasonably bright fellow especially about financial stuff. So if it is too complex for me, I doubt most people out there snapping them up have any real concept of what they are buying.

If they are only suitable for an elite who actually understand them, well there you go.

Which one?

There are precisely 12,345,678,901,234,567,890 crypto currencies out there last I checked, although that’s just an estimate. 

Assuming crypto is destined to be a real thing in our future and you’d like to stake your claim, just where exactly?

Bitcoin, the Kleenex of crypto?

Or perhaps Dogecoin which started as a joke and suddenly became a real thing. At least until Elon outed it on SNL last Saturday.

Or…?

Well, you have no end of choices.

Governmental backlash?

What about the concern of a governmental backlash as/if these things begin to get real traction? Issuing currency is not just a public service, it is a major source of power. And we all know how willingly governments gracefully relinquish power. 

So those are my thoughts, but what do I know? In my introduction in this guest post, How to Invest in Bitcoin like Benjamin Graham, I said…

My pal Lucas, who wrote that post back in 2017, has promised me an updated one shortly. You’ll get a much more positive take in that. It will be worth a read. Anyone who followed his advice back then would have profited handsomely.

Meanwhile, for balance, here’s Bill Maher, who is noted for being anti-religion of all types, railing against them:

Would I invest? No.

But I might speculate in one with a minor amount of money on the off chance it might explode on the upside.

Remember what is a minor amount of money to you might be a fortune to me. And vice versa. When you read Elon Musk has $5-billion in Bitcoin, put it in context:

That is 3.3% of his $150-billion net worth.

So, good ahead. You have the…

Official JL Collins Seal of Approval

…to invest 3.3% of yours.

Will I? Probably not as I can’t be bothered.

I don’t care. I don’t have to. VTSAX

******************************************************************

My pal Carl and his pal Doug just launched their new podcast Mile High FI. Not sure if the name comes from their location in Longmont CO or from what you can legally buy there.

They foolishly asked me to be their first guest.

******************************************************************

An existential crisis for us travelers.

******************************************************************

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Filed Under: Money

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Comments

  1. JL says

    May 13, 2021 at 5:09 pm

    I would encourage you to keep studying as you are only at the surface level and taking in the information of the corporate media (at least from what I can tell from what you’ve written). And, the fact that you post erroneous info stated by Bill Maher. Totally ignorant posture and position he has.

    Most are not currencies. Name given due to the first one.

    Here are two places I’d encourage you to learn.

    https://www.youtube.com/c/DigitalAssetNewsDAN/videos

    https://youtu.be/ipoENubMuAQ

    Reply
    • jlcollinsnh says

      May 13, 2021 at 5:12 pm

      Like I said, a religion. 🙂

      Reply
      • JO says

        May 13, 2021 at 5:21 pm

        Wow

        I respect so much of your work but your response is simply an attack on a request to dig a little deeper.

        Isn’t that the essence of your work?. People follow your thinking because it is distinct from the common assumptions.

        For example one project that is doing good work is THETA.

        They are solving real problems with a good team and excellent partnerships.

        Reply
      • Accidentally Retired says

        May 13, 2021 at 6:11 pm

        You’re not wrong about it being a religion, BUT I do think the Blockchain will matter going forward. Seth Godin has a really, really good explanation: https://seths.blog/2021/05/why-the-blockchain-matters/

        “Okay, so what’s the blockchain?

        It’s a database.

        Unlike most databases, it’s not controlled by one entity and it’s not easily rewritten. Instead, it’s a ledger, a permanent, examinable, public database. One can use it to record transactions of various sorts.

        It would be a really good way to keep track of property records, for example. Instead, we have title insurance, unsearchable folders of deeds in City Hall and often dusty tax records.”

        So while Bitcoin may be a religion, Blockchain technology in itself has a way of disrupting many old-school industries and record keeping technologies, but doing so in a more secure way…in the long-run.

        But for now, it is speculation…

        Reply
        • Mich says

          May 14, 2021 at 10:49 am

          Agreed.

          This statement from jlcollinsnh …
          > Creating and maintaining these things is breathtakingly energy intensive.

          True for Bitcoin and other proof-of-work crypto, but NOT true for all. Proof-of-statement crypto like Ethereum does not use the same energy-intensive processes.

          This statement from Accidentally Retired …
          > … but doing so in a more secure way…in the long-run

          Guess we’ll see what happens with quantum computing. If QC delivers on its promise, this could disrupt all crypto.

          Reply
    • Eric says

      May 13, 2021 at 5:22 pm

      Very confusing post when I first read it—thought it was JL replying to a post that was magically gone! After rereading it, appears that the user name is “ JL says”. Just thought it might be confusing to others as well…

      Reply
      • jlcollinsnh says

        May 13, 2021 at 5:30 pm

        It is confusing and made more so by the fact that “JL” and “JO” are the same person. Not sure why they chose to change their name with the second comment.

        Reply
        • JL says

          May 13, 2021 at 5:32 pm

          I did add to the confusion on accident. I mistyped my initials on my phone. Sorry about that. It could be confusing. I need to slow down.

          Reply
          • jlcollinsnh says

            May 13, 2021 at 5:37 pm

            No worries, JL. 🙂

        • vorlic says

          May 13, 2021 at 7:14 pm

          Forget the blockchain and its many applications – this thread alone is messing with my head.

          Reply
    • Alex Lee says

      June 1, 2021 at 10:45 pm

      Hi JL
      I’m a literary agent in Korea and one of my publisher is interested in your book-where can I get your email to discuss? I’ve sent a message in Twitter.com as well and I hope to hear from you soon.

      Reply
      • jlcollinsnh says

        June 2, 2021 at 8:31 am

        Hi Alex…

        I have forwarded your contact info to my agent.

        Thanks for your interest!

        Reply
  2. johm says

    May 13, 2021 at 5:15 pm

    HFSP, FEW.

    Reply
  3. Stefan Novak says

    May 13, 2021 at 5:21 pm

    Haha great witty post as always Mr Collins, I’ve been curious about your thoughts on Crypto. I put £20 into the Doge as I was just fascinated how the value of this seemingly made up thing seemed to fluctuate based on Tweets! It was fun but I’d certainly never invest any real money into something so volatile.

    Cheers

    Reply
  4. Peter says

    May 13, 2021 at 5:30 pm

    Thanks for yet another insightful post!

    You have a small error at the end of your post. You state that Elon Musk holds $5-billion in Bitcoin out of his $150-billion net worth. That equates to 3.33% and not .033%.

    Reply
    • jlcollinsnh says

      May 13, 2021 at 5:32 pm

      D’oh!

      You are correct Peter. Thanks for the catch.

      No wonder I don’t understand crypto! 😉

      Reply
  5. John says

    May 13, 2021 at 5:32 pm

    5 billion is 3.3% (not .033%) of Elon’s fortune.

    Reply
  6. Jaketucson says

    May 13, 2021 at 5:34 pm

    Best closing sentence of any of your posts! 😁

    Reply
    • jlcollinsnh says

      May 13, 2021 at 5:36 pm

      And one I almost deleted. 😉

      Reply
  7. JW says

    May 13, 2021 at 5:38 pm

    Not to nit pick but $5B divided by $150B is 3.33%, not .033%.

    Reply
  8. Georgia boy says

    May 13, 2021 at 5:40 pm

    Timely post, Mr. Collins.
    You do need to check your decimal point on how much of Elon’s net worth is in crypto.
    To commenter JL, Bitcoin, and some others, are pitched as currencies, alternatives/replacements for the USD. A widely used currency does have value. Gold has value as a store of value/currency substitute, and for use in jewelry.
    I have never heard any reasonable explanation of why or how a non-currency crypto has any value.
    For Bitcoin, one big selling point/use case is as a currency/alternative for the USD.
    As of now, it’s a whole lot easier to use USDs, not to mention the crazy value fluctuation problem Mr. Collins mentions. Many of the proponents of crypto like the fact that it isn’t the USD (e.g. Iran, North Korea, Russia, criminals), but there are alternatives to the USD (Swiss Francs, japanese yen) that are a more stable store of value and are at least as easy to transact in as bitcoin. A pretty good argument can be made that bitcoin has facilitated the growth of the ransomware business
    Even some of not explicitly criminal use cases are not exactly on the moral high ground, such as hiding assets from spouses and creditors.
    I don’t expect the speculation in crypto to end, and that’s fine, but it is speculation.

    Reply
  9. Kevin says

    May 13, 2021 at 5:41 pm

    I believe you mixed up the decimal in your estimation of Elon Musks Bitcoin holdings.

    5 B / 150 B = 0.033

    3.3%

    Reply
  10. Alex says

    May 13, 2021 at 6:06 pm

    Greetings from Brazil.

    Mr. Collins, I’d like to thank you for your lessons. In a world where people tend to complicate things, you show us, with great sincerity, the safe path to reach and preserve our wealth.

    There’s no shortcuts, instead there’s a lot of traps, and this speculative frenzy is one of them.

    Reply
    • Henrique says

      May 13, 2021 at 8:51 pm

      Another Brazilian here. Mr. Collins doesn’t even know he’s the godfather of the Brazilian FIRE movement as well as the american. Hope he comes to a chautauqua in Brazil soon!

      Reply
      • jlcollinsnh says

        May 13, 2021 at 11:55 pm

        I know now! 🙂

        Reply
        • Andrea Meier says

          May 14, 2021 at 1:20 am

          I don’t care, too and I don’t have to: VWCE

          Vanguard FTSE All-World UCITS ETF USD Acc

          The few Bitcoin I bought while ago for speculation and to learn about are already sold thanks ELON for one crazy tweet …

          Blockchain is an interesting disruptive technology and another topic for me!

          Reply
      • jlcollinsnh says

        May 17, 2021 at 12:28 pm

        Unfortunately, no plans for a Brazilian Chautauqua. However, my agent tells me she has begun negotiations with a publisher in Brazil for my book. 🙂

        Reply
  11. No More Weekdays says

    May 13, 2021 at 6:30 pm

    Equities and other investments are intuitive and their value and rationale as an investment can be explained without much effort. If it takes white papers and multiple long winded answers to explain crypto and it still doesn’t make sense then it must be pretty complicated.

    Reply
    • vorlic says

      May 13, 2021 at 6:45 pm

      True, but then I really cannot understand electricity. I have worked with it, designed and built systems which use it, generate it and so on, but I still cannot, for the life of me, understand exactly what it is or how it works.

      Same with Bitcoin/Ethereum/Litecoin – currently I am approx 500% up from following JL/Lucas’ tip back in 2017. If the money had landed in the Lithuanian bank account four days sooner, and from thence made it into Coinbase two days sooner, I would now be up about 1500% up.

      I am just leaving my modest little speculation well alone. If it’s going to catch on, the sky is the limit. If not, no stress.

      For the rest, it’s Bogle’s Baby.

      Reply
      • Greg says

        May 30, 2021 at 7:39 pm

        I understand what you’re saying about electricity, but with cryptocurrencies as with any other thing I would consider risking my money for, there has to be a relatively straightforward answer to the question “Why does this exist?” If you need a white paper to make the case that people should put their money into this thing, that’s a problem.

        Reply
  12. aw says

    May 13, 2021 at 6:32 pm

    Check out Gregg Foss
    “Bitcoin as portfolio insurance”
    https://youtu.be/aO4RMRr6fko
    and/or
    “Bitcoin and the bond market”
    https://youtu.be/3g-I9e7KlHM
    TL;DR
    BTC as a hedge for your FIRE portfolio as the petroleum dollar regime winds down

    Reply
  13. FiPhysician says

    May 13, 2021 at 6:36 pm

    Wait a second… you wrote a SIMPLE Path to wealth and there is concern that you might have thought crypto was part of that simple path??? Blockchain = revolutionary; Bitcoin = bubble. Those with the religion don’t like to see that.

    Reply
  14. Michael Graham says

    May 13, 2021 at 6:44 pm

    I have come to the same conclusion Josh. Since when is high systemic complexity a positive feature? I think the truth is that none of the varying bells and whistles between them actually matter. They’re all Ponzi scheme memes and the only feature of merit is popularity; which historically is an incredibly fickle friend.
    A simplified system view is adequate to see that any crypto is a game of hot potato, with an expected value of paying out positively less than 50% of the time simply due to the transaction costs. I’d don’t like those odds. I sleep best with my stack in VTWAX.
    I’m looking forward to the crypto bubble popping. My bet is it’ll be this fall when the hyperinflation boogeyman turns out to be only mildly inconvenient at worst, yet again.
    Love your book by the way.

    Reply
    • Greg says

      May 30, 2021 at 7:47 pm

      There’s a distinct possibility that at least part of the crypto space is just straight up money laundering / counterfeiting, as well. Read the piece “The Bit Short” on Medium; the spam filter will not let me post it here.

      Reply
  15. John says

    May 13, 2021 at 9:20 pm

    The answer might be 1% or 10% or 8% or 2%…. but it is not 0%
    A small percentage of your portfolio in cryto is a no brainer. DYOR.

    Be it this ” but I might speculate in one with a minor amount of money on the off chance it might explode on the upside” or any other reason, but not having some exposure to crypto is negligence.

    BTW, Bill Maher is a comedian, he makes money being by making people laugh. Would you take financial advice from a comedian?

    Reply
  16. Seann Herdejurgen says

    May 13, 2021 at 10:03 pm

    What’s the P/E ratio for Bitcoin?
    Asking for a friend. 😉

    Reply
    • Georgia boy says

      May 13, 2021 at 10:19 pm

      That’s funny!

      Reply
  17. Nick G says

    May 13, 2021 at 10:57 pm

    A friend suggested that I research cryptocurrency because it is the currency of the future. Not interested. I don’t invest in currency. I invest in companies. My portfolio of VTSAX is up over $300k since August 2020. I’m very good with that!!! And I understand everything about my portfolio. No extensive research required. I’ll stick to “simple” every day, all day.

    Reply
  18. New2Crypto says

    May 13, 2021 at 11:05 pm

    I recently launched a very simple web site to give new crypto investors a heads-up on some of the major items that they should be aware of if they decide to try investing: new2crypto.org.

    Cryptocurrency is quickly becoming a field of technology that is increasingly about the utility of the networks/blockchains/distributed ledgers etc. and less about the currencies or tokens. But it is a very immature field/market. However, huge companies have long saw the value in the tech for conducting their business transactions—beyond the currencies. IBM has been using/developing blockchain for the past 6 years. This is the cryptocurrency company they (and 19 other enormous companies) are now deeply involved in: https://hedera.com/council

    I think that the companies on this list illustrate the scale of the industry involvement that is happening right now. And highlight the probability that it won’t be long before Vanguard begins offers the Hedera Hashgraph’s tokens to their investors.

    For now though new investors would be wise to proceed with a lot of caution and do a lot of research as crypto investing is very different from what most people are used to in relation to risk, security and customer support.

    Reply
  19. George Choy says

    May 14, 2021 at 12:42 am

    I don’t touch crypto as an investment vehicle, as it is pure speculation and there’s no cashflow. It’s unstable, with wild fluctuations every day.
    I want cashflow in the bank every month, which is why I buy residential and commercial property. It’s real. I can touch it. The money arrives every month in my bank.

    Reply
    • Victor says

      May 14, 2021 at 7:20 am

      There is something called DEFI com crypto. Cashflow.

      Reply
  20. Andrea says

    May 14, 2021 at 1:25 am

    I don’t care, too and I don’t have to: VWCE

    Vanguard FTSE All-World UCITS ETF USD Acc

    The handful Bitcoin I bought while ago for speculation and to learn about are already sold thanks ELON for one crazy tweet …

    Blockchain is an interesting disruptive technology and another topic for me!

    Reply
  21. K from Chautauqua says

    May 14, 2021 at 1:46 am

    JL, for someone who doesn’t understand crypto, you have written the best and most succinct analysis of crypto I’ve read. And that’s from someone who has (through sheer luck and/or irony) done well playing crypto roulette. Sage wisdom as always.

    Reply
  22. Toby says

    May 14, 2021 at 2:11 am

    Is it just me, or is the filter extremely picky on used words.

    Reply
  23. PB says

    May 14, 2021 at 6:05 am

    I have no idea whether this blog influenced my thinking about investments so much, or I keep reading it because I have already thought that way and this is just confirming my bias, but these are exactly my thoughts about crypto. That said, I do engage in some small scale (about 1% of my net worth) speculations with it, and have seen some pretty ridiculous growth.

    Reply
  24. Chris says

    May 14, 2021 at 8:26 am

    I will just stick with this for now … Thanks for the insight though …

    Avoid fiscally irresponsible people. Never marry one or otherwise give him access to your money.
    Avoid money managers. It’s your money and no one will care for it better than you.
    Avoid debt.
    Save a portion of every dollar you get.
    The greater the percent of your income you save and invest, the sooner you’ll have F-You money. Try 50%. With no debt, this perfectly doable.
    Put this money in the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund (VTSAX) This is the fund you already own, so just keep adding to it.
    Realize the market and the value of your shares will sometimes drop dramatically. People all around you will panic. They’ll be screaming Sell, Sell, Sell. Ignore this. Even better: Buy more shares.
    When you can live off the dividends VTSAX provides you are financially free.
    The less you need, the more free you are.

    CT

    Reply
  25. Tech says

    May 14, 2021 at 8:44 am

    You have been flagged as spam/malicious by WordPress Zero Spam.

    Reply
  26. Steveark says

    May 14, 2021 at 8:56 am

    Crypto reminds me of the early days of personal computers. There were thousands of equal sized competitors. The idea than anyone could know that Dell and Microsoft and Apple would win and Texas Instruments and Gateway and Osborne would lose is ridiculous. Picking a crypto winner now is just as unlikely.

    Reply
  27. RobDiesel says

    May 14, 2021 at 11:10 am

    I can see blockchain being of use.

    I crack up when people complain that “one tweet from Elon and I lost everything” – that’s sort of the point with crypto. It’s not regulated, so people like Elon could tweet, drop the value of whatever crypto, buy a whole bunch of it and tweet something else and magically make hundreds of millions of dollars.

    If he does that with publicly traded companies, the SEC will jump on it quickly (as they have in the past), so it’s open to manipulation.

    I actually bought ETH 4-5 years ago and about forgot about it until the other week. It’s done well, but it’s less than 0.1% of my portfolio invested (though worth more now) so I might as well let it ride. It might vanish or it might double from here.

    For people needing to park cash for a little while, I suspect a covered-call fund might make sense for a few months. It would have a dividend and be less volatile than crypto.

    Ultimately, like JL says, if you just keep throwing your excess money into VTSAX, you can sleep easy without having to worry about volatility.

    Reply
  28. Fe says

    May 14, 2021 at 11:25 am

    Mr. Collins, thanks to your stock series I started investing in 2015 with only 10k in savings and $0 invested. I had just turned 27. I recently turned 33 and have a portfolio of $370k (annual salary $75k in the Bay Area) thanks to your advice (I found you before Mr. MMM). I need to get to $600k to be financially free, so I’m hoping to get there in the next 3 or 4 years assuming the market doesn’t go south and I’m also planning to move out of California. Although I’d also love to hit $1M even if I don’t need the money. The only stock I own is VTSAX, but in January I decided to diversify my portfolio and put about 5% in crypto (20k, 50/50 BTC/ETH). I didn’t sell stocks, I’ve never sold stocks (VTSAX). I sold some bonds plus some savings I had. I considered it play money as I’d be getting into an asset class with no long term track record. I also did it because more institutions (e.g. PayPal) started adopting it. Crypto quickly became 10% of the portfolio on its own. Not sure what the future holds (10-15 years from now) and I’m not planning to add more to it, but in case it grows, I’m planning to not let it grow more than 30% of the portfolio and I’ll only consider the Vanguard money as the one that “counts” for financial freedom. I also have to say that BTC has not performed that well compared to some other coins, which means that crypto can also benefit from the index fund concept. If crypto really takes off, it probably won’t be with BTC that wins. I’m sure there’ll be a crypto index fund in the future, so I’ll transfer all of that play money into that index fund once available.

    Reply
    • Sacherow says

      May 21, 2021 at 3:19 pm

      There is no such thing as play money.

      Reply
  29. Rafael says

    May 14, 2021 at 12:15 pm

    Finally someone touches on the main question for me and 90% of population:

    “It’s only suitable for an elite who actually understand them”. This is exactly why none of the current coins will be used as main currency on streets ever.

    Central Banks will have to come up with their own government-controlled cryptos encapsulated in something the general public can understand, not just the silicon valley people.

    Reply
  30. MyFinancialShape says

    May 15, 2021 at 1:00 pm

    Hi JL
    Very interesting read. Cryptos are an extremely interesting topic and I think its sensible to have at least some little exposure (I am thinking of the major ones like Bitcoin, Ethereum etc.). A few hundred dollars are enough. There is big upside potential and not too much to lose.
    Cheers
    MyFinancialShape

    Reply
  31. Dan says

    May 15, 2021 at 1:18 pm

    There is some value in the technology of blockchain. And the way it’s propagated makes sense in some respect because that is how the technology works – you need people to mine it or farm it to establish and large enough pool to enable the value of blockchain.

    At this point, we are way past proving value and setting up technology, and into full on stupid speculation. It’s absolutely reminiscent of the internet companies in 1999, and likely to end in the same way.

    Reply
  32. Knight Rider says

    May 16, 2021 at 6:30 pm

    Crypto “investors” wanted a completely non-regulated non-governed decentralized currency…well, THEY GOT IT !
    Now they have to live with things like Elon manipulation price and there’s no “crypto SEC” to complain about…
    see, complete freedom and anarchy aren’t so good, isn’t it?

    Reply
    • Alex says

      May 16, 2021 at 6:55 pm

      Correct on 1, necessary evil on 2. All feature, no bugs 🙂
      See prior cycles — especially BCH hard fork.

      Reply
  33. Chris says

    May 17, 2021 at 6:08 am

    How can an asset go from being with $0 to having a multi trillion dollar market cap without volatility?

    Volatility is a reflection of the world’s understanding of bitcoin; it isn’t inherent to bitcoin. It is the result of externalities.

    “if a global, digital, sound, open source, programmable money was monetizing from absolute zero, I guess it would seem a lot like this …”

    Reply
  34. dandarc says

    May 18, 2021 at 1:40 pm

    You can really piss off someone who just got into crypto by saying this (although perhaps had I used these exact words it would have gone better): “I don’t care. I don’t have to. VTSAX”

    So thank you for 8 words that fully sum it up so clearly.

    If crypto does wind up being a huge thing, some company in this fund will have done very well with it. No need for to overweight any further than that.

    Reply
    • Eric says

      May 26, 2021 at 8:18 am

      This is exactly right. VTSAX covers crypto for you by proxy.

      Reply
  35. Chris says

    May 20, 2021 at 4:57 pm

    Hey JL, I’m a huge fan of your book. In fact, I’m pretty sure it’s the only book I’ve ever read twice!

    It’s very interesting to me that you compare to crypto to religion. I’ve approached crypto thinking of Pascal’s wager, which is pertaining to religion. Pascal said there are four scenarios, depending on whether or not God exists and whether or not you are a believer. If God exists and you’re a believer you are awarded eternal life. If God doesn’t exist and you are a believer then you’ve wasted a few hours going to church every Sunday but no biggie. If God does exist and you aren’t a believer you are headed to hell.

    So I’ve invested a small amount into crypto hoping for a large upside.

    Make sense?

    Reply
    • jlcollinsnh says

      May 20, 2021 at 5:48 pm

      You only mentioned three scenarios. Perhaps the 4th is: God does exist and you aren’t a believer but He has a sense of humor and you get eternal life anyway.

      As for a little bit of crypto hoping for paradise, sure why not. Just keep a sense of humor. 🙂

      Reply
      • Chris says

        May 21, 2021 at 9:45 am

        Ha, the one I didn’t mention is if God does not exist and you do not believe. Then, you are right but eternity is…..???? And I definitely believe that God has a sense of humor (I see it every day), so maybe (and hopefully) you are correct!

        I’ve got my little bit of crypto and I’ll keep my sense of humor!

        Reply
    • JL says

      May 20, 2021 at 6:53 pm

      Hi Chris

      Which book?

      Reply
      • Chris says

        May 21, 2021 at 9:46 am

        Simple Path to Wealth! (And the Bible too, of course 🙂

        Reply
        • dandarc says

          May 24, 2021 at 10:33 am

          JL is not jlcollinsnh. I’d ban whoever JL is from commenting if this were my site, but then I have very little patience for this sort of nonsense.

          Reply
  36. Khurram Din says

    May 23, 2021 at 2:51 am

    Mr. Collins, with all due respect and your advice. Your strategy and mindset reminds me of a leadership book called “what got you here will not get you there”.. technology and mindsets are evolving with time. Your mainstream investors soon to be gen Y and Gen Z who are driven primarily by technology and independence from the “Eff Ups” of the federal government. Crypto allows that flexibility and freedom. This is not a religion approach, this is an evolutionary approach based on what disruptions technology has done in the past years! Simple TRENDS! not Religion. I would say quiet the opposite. Religion is a fixated mindset, and not being flexible. In this case sticking with FIAT currency to me sounds more of a religion than progressive mindset of crypto.

    Reply
    • JL says

      May 23, 2021 at 11:52 am

      Very well said.

      Fundamentalism is reactivity being dogmatic. It is not the content but the dogmatic approach.

      Anyone can be a fundamentalist.

      Reply
  37. nick says

    May 24, 2021 at 11:42 am

    thank you JL Collins!

    Reply
  38. Greg says

    May 25, 2021 at 8:38 pm

    @Theophite on Twitter offers the following explanation of Bitcoin:

    “Imagine if keeping your car idling 24/7 produced solved Sudokus you could trade for heroin.”

    Reply
    • AW says

      May 25, 2021 at 9:43 pm

      What version of Sudoko secures our Vanguard ETFs and bank accounts? 🙂
      If you’re so inclined, look into SHA256, Proof of Work and elliptic curve cryptography…
      Cheers

      Reply
  39. SavyFox says

    May 28, 2021 at 1:30 pm

    Hi Jim
    All very good points you are making. And you’re right, as a diversified long term oriented investor one is perfectly fine without cryptos. But still, it’s incredibly interesting and as for me, I took the decision to take some exposure. The learning effect is also bigger when I have “skin in the game”.
    Cheers
    SavyFox

    Reply
  40. Chris@TTL says

    May 30, 2021 at 1:25 pm

    Hey JL!

    I especially appreciated your POV on whether it’s disaster insurance or not, specifically the point about it depending on what type of “disaster” you’re trying to avoid! A personal disaster that has you getting out of country might mean having crypto is quite useful while a global catastrophe might make it inaccessible! Great points all around.

    Reply
  41. Vic says

    June 1, 2021 at 5:15 pm

    No comment for or against crypto but thanks for the Bill Maher clip. I know a lot of people don’t like him but I find his humor refreshingly right on.

    Reply
  42. Jessica Wood says

    June 2, 2021 at 11:47 am

    Hey JL,

    Just finished your book and loved it. Will you be coming out with another book at some point?

    Some are saying stablecoins (those that have their value pegged to the dollar or other national currencies) could have the potential to replace bonds. There are a lot of ways to earn high interest on stablecoins (4%, 7%, 10%) that isn’t an option via the traditional monetary system. I’m fascinated by this myself. Could be something for you to look into.

    -Jessica

    Reply
  43. Sheila says

    June 12, 2021 at 10:27 am

    Hello Mr. Collins, thank you for your book The simple path to wealth, it helped my family get started with investing. Considering the above article about crypto and the consequences of the government printing dollars I would like to learn more about inflation. Is there a book you’d recommend?
    Thanks.

    Reply
    • ChakraTease says

      October 24, 2021 at 1:01 pm

      The classic book “The Creature from Jekyll Island, a Second Look at the Federal Reserve System”, by G. Edward Griffin. I see this 600-page, which is as easy to read as a detective novel, as a sort of “primer” for an understanding of inflation of fiat, fractional-reserve money, which leads to money devaluation. Reading it in 2009 after the Great Recession wiped my successful business out helped me understand the boom and bust cycle.

      Reply
  44. Mac says

    June 16, 2021 at 9:21 pm

    It’s amusing to see people in comments writing about things they have little knowledge of, and obviously have no interest of educating themselves on.
    To each their own.
    Everything/21M

    Reply
  45. AW says

    June 16, 2021 at 11:03 pm

    Few.

    Reply
  46. Linda says

    June 24, 2021 at 2:27 pm

    Hi JL, might there be any way to reach you by email to pitch an idea? Respectfully, Linda

    Reply
  47. Sean says

    July 2, 2021 at 3:24 pm

    Hi Mr. Collins, do you have any thoughts on loss-mitigating options in lieu of bonds in the “wealth preservation phase”?

    Reply
  48. Jason says

    July 20, 2021 at 9:50 am

    The Crypto disciples usually make the following arguments for Bitcoin with the following ideas:
    Crypto as a currency
    Crypto as a commodity
    Crypto as a store of value
    Crypto as technology / Blockchain
    I think we will have a digital currency. It makes sense. But it will be legal tender managed by the Federal Reserve. Crypto has been called greater fools theory by some of the greatest minds of our time. If you want the truth about Bitcoin listen to this podcast episode.
    https://soundretirementplanning.com/340-bitcoin/

    Reply

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      • Collins on Crypto
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      • A Guided Meditation for When the Stock Market Is Dropping
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      • Personal Capital; and how to unload your unwanted stocks and funds
      • Stockchoker: A look back at what your investment might have been
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      • Case Study #14: To Dream the Impossible Dream (and then realize it)
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      • Gone for Summer, an important note on comments and random cool stuff that caught my eye
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      • Case Study #13: The Power of Flexibility
      • Stocks — Part VIII: The 401(k), 403(b), TSP, IRA & Roth Buckets
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      • Stocks -- Part XXVIII: Debt - The Unacceptable Burden
      • Chautauqua October 2015: Times Two!
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      • YNAB: Best Place to Work Ever?
      • Case Study #12: Escaping a soul-crushing job before you're 70
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      • Case Study #11: John, a small business owner in transition
      • Trish and Stan take an Intrepid Sailing Voyage
      • 2014 Annual Louis Rukeyser Memorial Market Prediction Contest results, and my forecast for 2015
  • ► 2014 (29)
    • ► December (2)
      • Diamonds and Happy Holidays!
      • Micro-Lending with Kiva
    • ► November (3)
      • Chautauqua February 7-14, 2015: Escape from Winter
      • Stocks -- Part XXVII: Why I Don’t Like Dollar Cost Averaging
      • Jack Bogle and the Presidential Medal of Freedom
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      • Tuft & Needle: A better path to sleep
      • Nightmare on Wall Street: Will the Blood Bath Continue?
      • Help Wanted
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      • Chautauqua 2014: Lightning strikes again!
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      • Stocks -- Part XXVI: Pulling the 4%
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    • ► July (3)
      • Stocks -- Part XXIV: RMDs, the ugly surprise at the end of the tax-deferred rainbow
      • Summer travels, writing, reading and other amusements
      • Moto X, my new Republic Wireless Phone
    • ► June (1)
      • Stocks -- Part XXIII: Selecting your asset allocation
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      • Stocks -- Part XXII: Stepping away from REITs
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      • Q&A III: Vamos
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      • Q&A I: Gaijin Shogun
    • ► March (2)
      • Top 10 posts
      • Cafe No Se
    • ► February (4)
      • Chautauqua 2014 preview, closing up for travel and other random cool things that caught my eye of late.
      • Case Study #10: Should Josiah buy his parents a house?
      • Case Study #9: Lars -- maximizing some good fortune and considering "dollar cost averaging"
      • Case Study #8: Ron's mother - she's doin' all right!
    • ► January (4)
      • roundup: Some random cool things
      • Stocks — Part XXI: Investing with Vanguard for Europeans
      • Case Study #7: What it looks like when everything financial goes wrong
      • 1st Annual Louis Rukeyser Memorial Market Prediction Contest 2013 results, and my forecast for 2014
  • ► 2013 (41)
    • ► December (4)
      • Closing up for the Holidays, see you in 2014
      • Betterment: a simpler path to wealth
      • Case Study 6: Helping an ill and elderly parent
      • Stocks -- Part XX: Early Retirement Withdrawal Strategies and Roth Conversion Ladders from a Mad Fientist
    • ► November (3)
      • Death, Taxes, Estate Plans, Probate and Prob8
      • Case Study #5: Zero to 2.6 million in 25 years
      • Case Study #4: Using the 4% rule and asset allocations.
    • ► October (3)
      • Republic Wireless and my $19 per month phone plan
      • Case Study #3: Let's get Tom to Latin America!
      • The Stock Series gets its own page
    • ► September (2)
      • Case Study #2: Joe -- off to a fast start!
      • Chautauqua 2013: A Week of Dreams
    • ► August (1)
      • Closing up shop plus an opening at Chautauqua, my new podcast, phone, book and other random cool stuff
    • ► July (1)
      • They Will Kill You For Your Shoes!
    • ► June (4)
      • Stocks -- Part VIII-b: Should you avoid your company's 401k?
      • Shilpan's Seven Habits to Live More with Less
      • Stocks -- Part XIX: How to think about money
      • My path for my kid -- the first 10 years
    • ► May (5)
      • Why your house is a terrible investment
      • Stocks — Part XVIII: Investing in a raging bull
      • Dining with the Ghosts of Sarah Bernhardt and Alfons Mucha
      • How we finally got the house sold
      • Stocks — Part XVII: What if you can't buy VTSAX? Or even Vanguard?
    • ► April (4)
      • Greetings from Prague & a computer question
      • Swimming with Tigers, a 2nd chance on the Chautauqua, a financial article gets it wrong and I'm off to Prague
      • Storage, Moving and Movers
      • Homeless, and a bit on the strategy of dollar cost averaging
    • ► March (4)
      • Wild Turkeys, Motorcycles, Dining Room Sets & Greed
      • Roots v. Wings: considering home ownership
      • How about that stock market?!
      • The Blog has New Clothes
    • ► February (5)
      • Meet Mr. Money Mustache, JD Roth, Cheryl Reed & me for a Chautauqua in Ecuador
      • High School Poetry, Carnival, cool ads and random pictures that caught my eye
      • Consignment Shops: Best business model ever?
      • Cafes
      • Stocks -- Part XVI: Index Funds are really just for lazy people, right?
    • ► January (5)
      • Social Security: How secure and when to take it
      • Fighting giraffes, surreal landscapes, dancing with unicorns and restoring a Vanagon
      • My plan for 2013
      • VITA, income taxes and the IRS
      • How to be a stock market guru and get on MSNBC
  • ► 2012 (53)
    • ► December (6)
      • See you next year....until then: The Origin of Life, Life on Other Worlds, Mechanical Graveyards, Great Art, Alternative Lifestyles and Finding Freedom
      • Stocks -- Part XV: Target Retirement Funds, the simplest path to wealth of all
      • Stocks -- Part XIV: Deflation, the ugly escort of Depressions.
      • Stocks Part XIV: Deflation, the ugly escort of Depressions.
      • Stocks -- Part XIII: The 4% rule, withdrawal rates and how much can I spend anyway?
      • How I learned to stop worrying about the Fiscal Cliff and you can too.
    • ► November (2)
      • Rent v. owning: A couple of case studies in Ecuador
      • So, what does a month in Ecuador cost anyway?
    • ► October (4)
      • See you in December....
      • Meet me in Ecuador?
      • The Podcast: You can hear me now.
      • Stocks -- Part XII: Bonds
    • ► September (6)
      • Stocks -- Part XI: International Funds
      • The Smoother Path to Wealth
      • Case Study #I: Putting the Simple Path to Wealth into Action
      • Tales of Bolivia: Calle de las Brujas
      • Stocks -- Part X: What if Vanguard gets Nuked?
      • Travels in South America: It was the best of times....
    • ► August (1)
      • Home again
    • ► June (4)
      • Yellow Fever, closing up shop for the summer and heading to Peru y Bolivia
      • I could not have said it better myself...
      • Stocks -- Part IX: Why I don't like investment advisors
      • Happy Birthday, jlcollinsnh; and thanks for the gift Mr. MM!
    • ► May (6)
      • Stocks -- Part VIII: The 401K, 403b, TSP, IRA & Roth Buckets
      • Mr. Money Mustache
      • The College Conundrum
      • Stocks -- Part VII: Can everyone really retire a millionaire?
      • Stocks -- Part VI: Portfolio ideas to build and keep your wealth
      • Stocks -- Part V: Keeping it simple, considerations and tools
    • ► April (6)
      • Stocks -- Part IV: The Big Ugly Event, Deflation and a bit on Inflation
      • Stocks -- Part III: Most people lose money in the market.
      • Stocks -- Part II: The Market Always Goes Up
      • Stocks -- Part 1: There's a major market crash coming!!!! and Dr. Lo can't save you.
      • You can eat my Vindaloo, mega lottery, Blondie, Noa, Israel Kamakawiwo 'Ole, art, film and a ride on the Space Shuttle
      • Where in the world are you?
    • ► March (7)
      • How I lost money in real estate before it was fashionable, Part V: Sold! and the taxman cometh.
      • How I lost money in real estate before it was fashionable, Part IV: I become a Landlord.
      • How I lost money in real estate before it was fashionable, Part III: The Battle is Joined.
      • How I lost money in real estate before it was fashionable, Part II: The Limits of the Law.
      • How I lost money in real estate before it was fashionable, Part I: Impossibly Naive.
      • You, too, can be conned
      • Armageddon and the value of practical skills
    • ► February (6)
      • Rent v. Owning Your Home, opportunity cost and running some numbers
      • The Casanova Kid, a Shit Knife, a Good Book, Having No Regrets, Dark Matter and a bit of Magic
      • What Poker, Basketball and Mike Whitaker taught me about Luck
      • How to Give like a Billionaire
      • Go ahead, make my day
      • Muk Finds Success in Tahiti
    • ► January (5)
      • Travels with "Esperando un Camino"
      • Beanie Babies, Naked Barbie, American Pickers and Old Coots
      • Selling the House and Adventures in Staging
      • The bashing of Index Funds, Jack Bogle and a Jedi dog trick
      • Magic Beans
  • ► 2011 (22)
    • ► December (1)
      • Dividend Growth Investing
    • ► November (2)
      • The Mummy's head, Particle Physics and "Knocking on Heaven's Door"
      • "It's Better in the Wind" or why I ride a motorcycle
    • ► October (1)
      • Lazy Days and School Days
    • ► July (2)
      • The road to Zanzibar sometimes goes thru Ecuador...
      • Johnny wins the lotto and heads to Paris
    • ► June (16)
      • Chainsaws, Elm Trees and paying for College
      • Stuff I’ve failed at: the early years
      • Snatching Victory from the Jaws of Defeat
      • The. Worst. Used. Car. Ever.
      • Top Ten reasons your future is so bright it hurts my eyes to look at it
      • The Most Dangerous Words Your Customer Can Say
      • How not to drown in The Sea of Assholes
      • What we own and why we own it
      • The Ten Sales Commandments
      • My ever so formal and oh so dry CV
      • How I failed my daughter and a simple path to wealth
      • The Myth of Motivation
      • Why you need F-you money
      • My short attention span
      • Why I can’t pick winning stocks, and you can’t either
      • The Monk and the Minister

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