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You are here: Home / business / Mariah International: All that glitters…

Mariah International: All that glitters…

by jlcollinsnh 60 Comments

This…

Gold Dust

Is in here…

Cinder Cone

All this excitement surrounding GameStop of late has made me a bit nostalgic. It brings back memories, although not necessarily good ones.

Still, time passes, wounds heal and we can look back on our foibles with perspective if not humor.

Nothing is more intoxicating than picking a stock and watching it dramatically rise. Well, maybe one thing.

That rising stock is not only making you ever richer it is, uptick by uptick, confirming what a bright, savvy, insightful, dashing and attractive person you are. A true Master of the Universe who, in the case of GameStop and some recent others, can bring even mighty hedge funds to their knees.

I get it. I’ve been there, if in a less dramatic fashion. 

One of my little secrets, which I have now mentioned on several podcasts but not, I think, yet here on the blog, is that I actually achieved financial independence picking individual stocks and, by extension, actively managed funds run by folks picking individual stocks.

This is what made embracing index investing, at least for me, so difficult. Picking stocks and funds, done well, works. It just doesn’t work as well or as easily or as simply over time as, say, VTSAX.

But back in 1989 I had yet to come to accept that. Indeed back then I was making all the same arguments for stock picking and against indexing I now hear directed at me. What goes around…

In any event, back in ’89, I happened to be on an airplane off on some business trip. I don’t usually talk to people on planes. Too much risk of being trapped hearing about someone’s recent medical problems or great insurance opportunity.

But this day, Ron R. and I struck up a conversation. He worked for a boutique investment research firm. By the time the plane landed he was telling me I should come work for them, and I had pried three stock ideas from him.

Once home, I looked over the three stocks he’d suggested and, somewhat randomly, choose one: Lamson & Sessions. I can’t find it listed now so either I am misspelling it or they got bought out somewhere along the line.

Over the next couple of months I watched two things unfold. My talks with them led to a job offer and the stock price for L&S tripled. That may not sounds like much given today’s action in GameStop, but this wasn’t a “pump & dump” play backed by internet chatter. For a stock picker like me, it felt like I had not only found the people who had the secret sauce, I was being invited into the inner sanctum where it was made.

Secret Sauce

Courtesy of The Mad Fientist

Fast forward a year and I had learned there is no secret sauce and even the best analysts in the business, people who live and breathe just a few stocks in one or two industries, struggle to predict successfully which stocks will outperform. 

But before that, there was…

Mariah International

The Set-Up

Jimmy C. was one of the firm’s senior investment officers. A savvy guy, one of the perks of his success was he covered Arizona, not a bad place to escape to on business during the winter.

On one of those trips, he got to know the guys behind a small gold mining company who were developing a revolutionary new technology. 

Over about three years, he probed ever more deeply into their business and operations. At one point he brought down several of our best analysts to comb thorough it. Given how small and focused the company was and how thorough this due diligence, it is safe to say few companies have been more deeply examined and understood by outsiders.

So impressed were each of these team members, when they were done, each began accumulating the stock. And they shared the story with the rest of us.

The Hook

Up around Flagstaff, where Mariah was located, there are these natural formations called cinder cones. People have long known there was gold and other precious metals in this material, but in very small particles and amounts. By most estimates at the time, a ton of cinder cone held between 1/2 and 2 ounces of gold. The problem was, no one knew how to economically extract it.

And that was the problem Mariah had solved.

In addition to having developed this extraction process, Mariah had leases giving them access to tons and tons of cinder cone.

While I don’t remember the exact number of tons, or the number of outstanding shares, it was a simple bit of basic math to calculate how much gold there was for each share.

Again, not remembering exactly, this being 30+ years ago, gold was then trading for ~$400 an ounce. With two ounces in a cinder cone this meant each cone had ~$800 of gold. And this meant each share of Mariah, as I recall, represented ~$1200 in gold after accounting for production costs.

Of course, two ounces was at the high end of the predicted yield. To be conservative, we used the lower 1/2 ounce number. That suggested ~$300 per share of gold. At the time, the shares were trading for 50 cents. This was on no one’s radar and there was no demand. You can see the appeal.

Soon we were all buying and that, just like you’ve seen in GameStop, was enough to begin pushing the stock up. As it rose, other investors noticed and began to buy.

At one point, in our firm’s morning meeting, the senior partner opened by asking, “Anyone care to guess what the most widely held stock in this firm is?”

Since the SEC requires folks in that business to disclose all their holdings and trades, he already knew the answer: Mariah International.

With the growing interest in the stock, soon it was trading at $10-12 a share. We were all already sitting on multiple percentage gains on our earlier purchases.

Of course, when you are figuring this stock should be trading at $300 a share based on the low estimate of the amount of gold backing it, you are not a seller.

At two ounces a ton you could be looking at $1200 a share, and that is before factoring in the push from the market excitement as the story breaks.

Hell, even if we have massively miscalculated the gold content and it is only half our lowest estimate, that is still $150 a share.

Thinking like this, it is not long before you have sugar plums dancing in your head.

So let’s take a moment to review:

  • You have a company that has just developed an exciting and now proven technology.
  • It has leases on the raw materials it needs (the cinder cones).
  • It has been followed for years leading up to this point by an experienced investment pro.
  • It has then been vetted by several more highly regarded analysts.
  • It has become the most widely held stock in an investment firm filled with smart people who live and breathe stock picking and analysis.

What could possibly go wrong?

It certainly looked good to me, and remember I am no babe in the woods at this point. I had been investing in individual stocks for 15 years successfully enough to have achieved financial independence.

So, I too began to accumulate Mariah shares. By the time I was done I had $50,000 invested (my target amount) at an average of ~$3.33 per share, ~15,000 shares. This, for what it is worth, gave me the smallest, most conservative holding amongst my colleagues.

To amuse myself while I waited, I’d mentally calculate what those share could, would be worth:

At the low end 1/2 ounce extraction per ton, $300 worth of gold per 15,000 shares = $4,500,000.

At 2 ounces? A cool $18,000,000.

If our most conservative estimate was 2-times too high? That’s still $2,250,000. Not bad for a 50k investment.

But $50,000 is a lot of money to risk, especially for me in those days. In 2021 dollars it is ~$104,000 and back then a much bigger part of my net worth.

The Shut-Out

Of course, as you have likely guessed, it didn’t go to $300 a share, much less $1200. Not even $150, which we would have seen as a major disappointment.

It went to pennies. Four or five years later when I finally unloaded it, I don’t think those 15,000 shares cleared $1000.

When I want to depress myself, I go here and pick out the S&P 500 Return Calculator.  It tells me in the 31 years since January 1990 the S&P 500 has averaged a 10.298 percent annual return.

Then I go to the Investment Calculator and plug in my 50-grand, the 10.298 percent return and the 31 years that have passed.

Invested in a simple S&P 500 index fund, my lost money would now be worth $1,043,679. Sob!

The Sting

So, what went wrong?

Well, the simple and official explanation was that the technology simply didn’t scale up in the field. But there were also lawsuits and accusations of securities fraud.

In the end, there was simply not an underlying business to support the stock price. Let alone drive it higher. Buyers turned to sellers and the price collapsed. 

I’ll let you draw what lessons you may from all this. As for me, a few are…

  • There is no secret sauce.
  • No matter how thorough the due diligence and no matter how smart and experience those doing it are, you can never truly know a company or its future. The investing floor is littered with cases like Mariah.
  • Ultimately there has to be an underlying business sufficient to support the stock price.
  • We could have been right. It could have worked. And if it had, I very likely would have myopically seen it as the result of my astute investing prowess and totally missed how much a role luck would have played.

That last, of course, would have lured me into being even more confident and aggressive on the next one. And that hubris mostly leads to tears.

So I got something for my $50,000. A hard lesson in how things really work and one that brought me a step closer to embracing index investing. Because as I’ve said in many interviews now, while it hurt, Mariah was not my biggest investing mistake.

My biggest investing mistake, far and away, was that it took me far too long to have the humility and wisdom to see the value of indexing.

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Addendum:

In researching this I came across this article: From Cinders to Gold

It even includes a bit about Mariah. Seems the dream of extracting gold from cinder cones is still alive. At least as of 2005.

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NewRetirement:

We have a new affiliate* here on the blog!

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Sign up and you will be offered two paths into their retirement planner. The more compressive takes 8 minutes. Or, if you are in a hurry, you can select the one that only takes 2 minutes.

I was also on their podcast recently and you can check that out here:

Video version

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This is mostly me answering their questions, but it occurs to me it will also give you a feel for the calibre of people behind this venture.

*As with all affiliates here, should you choose to click on the NewRetirement link this blog may earn a commission.

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If you are interested in some of my other interviews, you can find many of them here: As seen on…

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Books

Here are a few I’ve been reading of late…

 My entire life I have been hearing predictions of decline and doom, and yet things on almost every measure have gotten better. I had figured it was just a modern phenomenon. Turns out it has been going on for ~500 years. This book is a fascinating review of such thinking from historians and philosophers and how these thoughts built upon each other.

  This is a great book I’ve recommended before and it is the factual antidote to the gloomy assessments recounted in the one above
 

I have an interest in human prehistory, and this one promised a unique take on the Americas. It did, but it is way too long and it drew sweeping conclusions based on too little evidence.

My friend Anita had this to say about this book: “I hated this book and just wanted it to be over. It was gross and the characters frustrated me. All the men were condescending pricks.”

So, of course, I had to pick it up to see what provoked such a strong reaction. I figured I’d read a few pages and be done with it. I’m not much into vampires anyway. Turns out I found it fairly entertaining. The men are “condescending pricks” and there is an especially disturbing scene of an old lady eating a bloody, raw raccoon in a dark passageway. It is the second best vampire book I have ever read.

I’ve read two.

This is the best vampire book I’ve ever read (of the two), although I read it back in the 1970s. I remember being impressed that Stephen King could make vampires, which have always struck me as silly, actually scary.

I’ve been enjoyably reading this series of historical novels for a few months now. Great adventure and characters. 

Flashlight

I don’t think I have ever posted about a product on the blog, and most I buy seem to disappoint. But I have been very impressed with this flashlight. It is solid metal and that alone is refreshing in this age of plastics. Very bright, adjustable beam. At ~$18 it’s a very good value I think. It does take six AA batteries so you want to be sure to have those. We happened to have them around, but it would have been disappointing to have to wait until we got out to pick some up.

Great for when you are out late at night hunting vampires.

Related

Important Resources

  • Talent Stacker is a resource that I learned about through my work with Jonathan and Brad at ChooseFI, and first heard about Salesforce as a career option in an episode where we featured Bradley Rice on the Podcast. In that episode, Bradley shared how he reached FI quickly thanks to his huge paychecks and discipline in keeping his expenses low. Jonathan teamed up with Bradley to build Talent Stacker, and they have helped more than 1,000 students from all walks of life complete the program and land jobs like clockwork, earning double or even triple their old salaries using a Salesforce certification to break into a no-code tech career.
  • Credit Cards are like chain saws. Incredibly useful. Incredibly dangerous. Resolve to pay in full each month and never carry a balance. Do that and they can be great tools. Here are some of the very best for travel hacking, cash back and small business rewards.
  • Personal Capital is a free tool to manage and evaluate your investments. With great visuals you can track your net worth, asset allocation, and portfolio performance, including costs. At a glance you'll see what's working and what you might want to change. Here's my full review.
  • Betterment is my recommendation for hands-off investors who prefer a DIFM (Do It For Me) approach. It is also a great tool for reaching short-term savings goals. Here is my Betterment Review
  • NewRetirement offers cool tools to help guide you in answering the question: Do I have enough money to retire? And getting started is free. Sign up and you will be offered two paths into their retirement planner. I was also on their podcast and you can check that out here:Video version, Podcast version.
  • Tuft & Needle (T&N) helps me sleep at night. They are a very cool company with a great product. Here’s my review of what we are currently sleeping on: Our Walnut Frame and Mint Mattress.
  • Vanguard.com

Filed Under: business, Life, Money

« Season’s Greetings!!
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Comments

  1. Jonathan says

    February 11, 2021 at 4:56 pm

    “We could have been right. It could have worked. And if it had, I very likely would have myopically seen it as the result of my astute investing prowess and totally missed how much a role luck would have played.”

    Very true. I think that’s what throws so many people off – the fact that a lot of investors DO come out far ahead of the average.

    Reply
    • Steve S says

      February 12, 2021 at 11:21 am

      This is primetime survivorship bias. The people who make a hot call loudly proclaim how they “did it!” The people who made bad calls silently eat their losses.

      Even if one ends up ahead with some losses and some ever-so-intoxicating hot calls, you just can’t consistently time the market, and it’s more lucrative not to anyway: https://nesbittburns.bmo.com/getimage.asp?content_id=70401

      Reply
  2. SUE REYNOLDS says

    February 11, 2021 at 5:24 pm

    I always love getting your (sadly infrequent) columns
    This one was great and I llluuuvvvved the review of the vampire book.

    Reply
  3. vorlic says

    February 11, 2021 at 6:34 pm

    Hello Mr Collins,

    Your first article since June 2020. We were beginning to wonder 🙂

    And what a read. And what humility…

    Pure chaos rules over all the 10-Ks in the world. This is enough knowledge to stick 99% with UK’s equivalent of VTSAX.

    Mundus vult decipi, ergo decipiatur.

    Staying sane.
    Staying sage.
    Staying on plan.

    Best, and thank you.
    Vorlic

    Reply
    • Life Outside The Maze says

      February 11, 2021 at 6:53 pm

      Haha, I have almost the same story except instead of gold it was Iron and instead of stock I was considering becoming an owner. Luckily, I did not and the company suffered a similar fate. I have also been thinking a lot about humility and how hard it must be for younger investors that have seen nothing but an insane bull market followed by a super short correction and back to all time highs. Could you blame a 30 year old today for being convinced he/she is just a genius when everything he/she threw cash at has had an above average return? Crazy times

      Reply
      • Frugal Steve says

        February 18, 2021 at 6:21 pm

        Very good point! I’m one of those 30 somethings and have to check myself all the time. I started my first job with a 401k in 2009. I’m a numbers nerd and have tons of spreadsheets set up to track my investments and also project where they will be based off of different assumptions. I have to keep reminding myself that I can’t expect my long term returns to be as good after seeing my investment accounts double in the last 4 years. I’m also currently in an Arizona mining stock situation that I am having a hard time letting go of my greed. The majority of my investments are in index funds, but I was tempted and bought ~$5K of FCX at $16/share. At the time I told myself I would sell it if it went above $20. Here we are at $34 and I can’t seem to let go. Maybe I’ll compromise with myself and sell $5K worth so that I can just “gamble with my winnings”.

        Reply
  4. Philip Pogson says

    February 11, 2021 at 7:13 pm

    Excellent read.
    But here’s the thing, the secret sauce thing is beginning to be ETF’d these days as well. All those amazing new ‘sensible’ ETFs that now capture parts of markets here there and everywhere – its so easy for well-meaning folks to get caught in exactly the same way with an ETF too.

    Your whole market approach is still the best solution by far

    Cheers from Australia 🙂

    Reply
    • jlcollinsnh says

      February 12, 2021 at 9:15 am

      Great point.

      ETFs were created to make it easier to trade them, just like stocks. This is one of the reasons, even though VTI holds exactly the same portfolio as VTSAX, I prefer the fund version.

      As you point out, there are thousands of ETFs and with them you can buy, and trade, any sliver of the market you choose.

      This is why I try to be careful to distinguish that what my approach calls for is low cost, broad-based funds like VTSAX or their ETF equivalents.

      Reply
  5. Patrick says

    February 11, 2021 at 9:27 pm

    Investor’s who are a bit “long in the tooth” do us a great service by sharing their experiences. Thank you very much for this. I am happily sandwiched in middle-age. I can still weather the risk that is a part of the Index and heed your advice as it “relentlessly climbs…” over the next 20 years.
    I feel for the youngsters who hope and expect a +20% monthly return on the crypto or stock dujour… And the amount of their lives wasted away in front of a screen bragging and feeding off of one another.
    I work for the indigent, I recently was text stock quotes from a client… He was advising me! Yikes! I went into a luncheonette and watched 2 cops bragging about their holdings as they showed each other their phones. There is a tremendous amount of cash out there being thrown into the market because it is cheap and we have a restricted market for other things.
    A crazy time… I am so happy I don’t have to concern myself with it!

    Reply
    • jlcollinsnh says

      February 12, 2021 at 9:16 am

      Yikes, indeed!

      Joe Kennedy and the shoe-shine boy all over again.

      Reply
      • Tech says

        February 12, 2021 at 10:43 pm

        Didn’t Joe pull out of the market after his shoe-shine boy gave him stock buying tips?

        My portfolio is the highest it’s ever been, and I started thinking is it time to take some off the table?

        I went back to my investment plan and my holdings are balanced according to my AA so I am doing nothing and letting it ride. I know I can’t time the market. If I put out when do I get back in, would I miss out on more record growth?

        Thanks for the story about the bad stock picking experience. I have many investment lessons learned the hard way too. Every so often the greed of making some big gains make me forget and I gamble some cash on some secret sauce.

        Reply
  6. J. Money says

    February 12, 2021 at 6:23 am

    Fun read, sir!!

    What a surprise about your stock-loving background!! Only makes you that much more wiser now in my eyes… It’s one thing to be index only your entire life and only know the difference by theory, and a whole other to have lived and breathed both sides 🙂

    Reply
    • jlcollinsnh says

      February 12, 2021 at 9:19 am

      Hey J. Money!

      Great to see you over here.

      Yeah, I had the stock-picking disease for decades and, like any addiction, it still tempts me.

      Reply
  7. Sal says

    February 12, 2021 at 7:39 am

    What apt timing for a post. Your book “Simple Path to Wealth” has been a huge influence in my life and I have re-listened to it multiple times to keep me on track. Just when my investment philosophy was about to divert with all the hoopla about Gamestop and picking individual stocks, I saw your post and it was a perfect reminder of staying to course. Thank you for this and hope to see more.

    Reply
  8. geodoo says

    February 12, 2021 at 11:09 am

    Now, buying Bitcoin through apps is all the rage. The gold rush moved to virtual life 😀

    What I heard from Charlie Munger in one of his interviews on Youtube (sorry I cannot find the exact video) was the best “antidote” against listening everyone around getting “rich” in days with BTC. He said sth like:

    Gold, I get it, there is an actually limited amount out there and this is what makes it most valuable. But, Bitcoin? They say it is like that, but this can change easily. And, you should not trust people telling you they will not do sth, while there is a way to do the opposite of what they say.

    Such sobering words… only Charlie can say 🙂

    Of course, the other saying that goes: be fearful when others get greedy and be greedy when others are fearful is a good reminder too.

    PS: I cite from memory, so please forgive any inaccuracies on the above

    Reply
  9. wendy says

    February 12, 2021 at 11:17 am

    Nice to see a post and a timely reminder to stay the course. 🙂
    I’m buying yet another copy of your book, along with Housel’s Psychology of Money, to send to a soon-to-be High School graduate who is starting to think about money and investing.
    Hope you and yours are staying safe and well!
    Cheers

    Reply
  10. ChrisCD says

    February 12, 2021 at 12:02 pm

    Diamond Hands or Gold Hands in your case. :O) I bought a few shares to help the little guys. Now, a bit of a loss. Still holding. Who knows. :O)

    40% of my portfolio is in broad based ETFs. :O)

    The best Vampire book I ever read and then it turned into a movie, too: “Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter”.

    The other one which was a bit disturbing. What could go wrong when you mix zombies and vampires: “Double Dead”.

    FOMO in the investment world is strong, but so far mostly being stronger. :O)

    Reply
  11. Dave says

    February 12, 2021 at 3:57 pm

    Would you have been interested in this opportunity if it had been something else like pharmaceutical stock or a technology stock?

    Does the fact that it gold was involved influence your decision to invest it in? I find anything around gold, or gold mining companies always seems to turn heads. Simple because people for centuries have ben lured toward the beautify metal.

    Thanks for the article, I enjoyed reading it.
    Dave

    Reply
    • jlcollinsnh says

      February 13, 2021 at 12:52 pm

      Interesting question, Dave.

      Of course, over the years I had bought many stocks in many different industries. But still there is a certain glitter around gold that tempts one into folly.

      But in that business, I think any situation that presented the upside Mariah seemed to would have captured our attention.

      Reply
  12. Ryan says

    February 12, 2021 at 8:37 pm

    Awesome article.

    2 young guys from work bought $15000 worth of GameStop at around $20/share. At one point they were up over $300k. Convinced it was “going to the moon” they held on – all the way back down. Someone (maybe you Mr. Collins) said that to succeed at stock picking you have to be right twice. The same internal reasoning that allowed them to drop 15k on a failing company kept them from selling even after the price skyrocketed. After all, they didn’t want to miss out on that moon landing. It’s hard enough to be right once (as evidenced by your story) but if you don’t sell at the right time then what’s the point. VTSAX for life.

    Reply
  13. gofi says

    February 13, 2021 at 9:41 am

    You’re building some legacy, Sir Mr. Collins.

    “My biggest investing mistake, far and away, was that it took me far too long to have the humility and wisdom to see the value of indexing.”

    For me, it’s indexing and compounding. At some point, the compounding surpasses what you can actually save, and that’s just an incredible feeling. But compounding only really takes serious shape once you have a decent chunk saved.

    Thanks for the words. All in (almost) on VTSAX.

    Reply
  14. Stephen Schleppegrell says

    February 13, 2021 at 11:07 am

    Very good article supporting index investing. I’ve been reading you since your first 10 stock series. Still hold only VTSAX and VTBLX, no conversion to VTI. My % of VTBLX has dwindled to ~ 20%. I did manage to convert some VTBLX to VTSAX in March when the market dropped 20%. Very happy I did but…. I’m happier just to let it ride. Less stress.
    Thank you again!

    Reply
  15. CaptainFI says

    February 13, 2021 at 6:29 pm

    Great to hear you are still going- an an insightful article as ever. I too was very perplexed at all the pump and dumps going on with reddit and ‘internet stonks’ but took solace in engine your ‘FU money’ youtube video… I shared that around a few times. You just cant argue with facts, and unfortunately now we are seeing everyone with substantial losses come out of the woodwork complaining… you cant make this stuff up eh?

    Reply
  16. Stefan says

    February 13, 2021 at 6:52 pm

    Excellent read! I just got done reading your book the second time and on the same day you make a block post, I am calling that destiny! I’ll be signing up for all future posts.

    Thank you for sharing so much of your wisdom, you’ve become my financial role model 🙂

    Reply
  17. ken says

    February 14, 2021 at 9:55 am

    All o.ne has to read to know INDEXING is the GOLD STANDARD OF INVESTING is to read Random Walk Down Wall Street or Bogle’s Books on funds
    Really not to difficult to grasp
    Only fools trade stocks
    Any mutual funds beating the index after one’s investing career of 30-40yrs
    There are NONE!
    Even Buffett says to INDEX

    Reply
    • jlcollinsnh says

      February 14, 2021 at 12:05 pm

      Mmmm…

      Maybe I should write a book about it. 😉

      Reply
      • David From Ohio says

        March 2, 2021 at 3:38 pm

        You wrote a book!?!? 😳

        Seriously, you’re taking away the thunder from people like “ The Shouting Guy on CNBC” – at least for rational people who are willing to learn from the voice of experience. For me it was Plug Power and Capstone Turbine. You’re doing a great service.

        Reply
  18. Chris@TTL says

    February 14, 2021 at 2:51 pm

    Great to hear from you, JL! Always a treat.

    You’ve got such a way to tell a great story, along with passing along a solid bit of wisdom. Thank you for that.

    I went through a somewhat similar learning experience with individual stocks during the Great Recession. Like you, I think I got out of it what I really needed: a lesson in indexing. And like you, I’m sure if I hadn’t learned the lesson then (when my assets really weren’t that much), I would have learned it further down the line. When I had more at stake, a bigger ego, and a lot more to lose.

    Great story, JL.

    Reply
  19. Greg Tomamichel says

    February 16, 2021 at 3:51 am

    Factfulness is an outstanding book, and I was so saddened to hear of Hans Rosling’s passing. For anyone who wants a clearer view of the state of the world, it is a must-read.

    Many thanks for your humble and honest account of stock picking. I feel very comfortable with index investing, but have absolutely no faith in my ability to pick stock “winners” from the pack.

    Reply
  20. Jennifer Hughes says

    February 16, 2021 at 10:58 am

    Excellent post, as always. So glad to hear this story as I have been listening to many ‘lucky’ investors of late tell me of their soon-to-be multi-millionaire status thanks to their hot stock tip. Perhaps they will get lucky, but likely they will miss selling at the peak even if their chosen one does skyrocket up in value. Indexing may not have the rollercoaster like thrills of that fast rise, but thanks to reading your book and well thought-out articles, as well as watching my own failure in the past to know when to sell those individual stocks that did do well for a period of time, I am much more comfortable holding and continuing to buy only those broad-based index funds. I haven’t yet opened my account with Vanguard since my current employer leverages Fidelity, but am planning to open that first brokerage account with them later this year when I have enough additional cash to invest in VTSAX. These articles and your previous ones have been excellent guidance to have as I began to reassess my own strategies the past few years and realign to the Simple Path to Wealth. Thank you and please keep them coming!

    Reply
  21. Josephine Clark says

    February 16, 2021 at 5:47 pm

    Mr. Collins (&/or the Simple Path disciples),

    BLUF: What is the best/most cost efficient way to shift my previous investments over to Vanguard index funds?

    New convert here. I saw a a YouTube video of Mr. Collins speaking at Google last week and then immediately read The Simple Path to Wealth over the weekend. I am a 23 year old female with a 24 year old husband. We are both set to max out our Roth TSPs this year.

    I previously made the mistake of working with an active investment manager to manage my portfolio. Although I have had a generally positive experience, I now have the confidence to know I can effectively manage my own portfolio through low cost index funds with lower fees. I’m sure that I am not the only person who has been in this position before. I apologize if this question has already been answered elsewhere, but how do I most effectively transfer my previous investments into Vanguard index funds? In other words, how do I best fix myself?

    I have over $100000 in investments at the brokerage. Funny enough, most of the $100000 are invested in various Vanguard ETFs, but like 15 of them (not very simple). I’m feeling a little overwhelmed and I’m not sure how to transfer these funds to Vanguard index funds without getting killed in taxes or fees. Is there a way? Or is this just going to be an expensive lesson I’ll hopefully laugh at one day just like Mr. Collins in his example?

    Thanks for your time and any advice. The book was already a great help! You wrote it for your daughter, but you could have written it for me.

    Reply
  22. Ellen says

    February 18, 2021 at 11:02 am

    “When the student is ready the teacher will appear.”

    Mr. Collins, to state that you are brilliant, a natural teacher, humble, likeable –
    indeed, possessing numerous admirable personal and professional traits and talents – would truly be an understatement!

    3 years ago, having come across your blog, I was not ‘ready’ to learn!

    Now, re-visiting what so impressed me then, after having explored other options,
    I am finally ready to learn what I believe makes the most sense,
    as so outlined in “The Simple Path To Wealth.”

    Although having re-visited your blog and book many times during these intervening years, and, after having stumbled and fallen, misstepping, I am thoroughly enjoying, once again, devouring this website, your book, Twitter feed – suffice it to say, ‘all things J.L. Collins’!

    You have and continue to perform a much-needed service to those individuals who understand and value the importance of financial independence.

    Thank you, on behalf of all of us.

    I look forward to continuing enjoying, learning and benefiting from your wise, intelligent counsel!

    Reply
  23. Southeast says

    February 20, 2021 at 6:49 am

    Thanks, JL. I really liked this post for two reasons:

    One is that this type of periodic reminder reinforces that indexing forever is the way to go.

    Almost as importantly, seeing the photo of Phil Silvers in the water reminds me that I need to watch It’s a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World again. What a cast of incredibly funny and talented people.

    Your book was recommended to me shortly after it came out. It was a huge help as I took charge and recently reached FI. As a longtime overseas teacher, I look forward to stepping away after next year, enjoying travel on my own schedule, and to new opportunities. Thanks again, Jim!

    Reply
    • jlcollinsnh says

      February 23, 2021 at 7:16 pm

      I was hoping someone would notice Phil Silvers and have a smile remembering It’s a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World 🙂

      Reply
  24. John @ LiveOffDividends says

    February 24, 2021 at 9:50 am

    $50,000 is a steep price to pay for a lesson. Thankfully, through your post, many of us are able to learn from your experience as well. Thanks for sharing this.

    Reply
  25. Christine Goodrich says

    February 24, 2021 at 12:55 pm

    Hey JL,

    Here is a great digital agency for your design needs konamade.com, per your twitter post.

    Reply
    • jlcollinsnh says

      February 24, 2021 at 12:57 pm

      Thanks Christine…

      I think an agency might be too much fire power for what is a very small job.

      Reply
  26. Adam Eaton says

    February 25, 2021 at 4:51 pm

    Mr. Collins,

    I just found your blog. Have now read the Stock Series twice. What a gem of a writeup.

    I just had some CDs mature. They represent about 25% of the dollar amount I now have invested in VTSAX and VBTLX. If you were me (I understand that there’s no crystal ball and I take full responsibility), would you simply invest the cash from the CDs into VTSAX and VBTLX right now according to my asset allocation (60/40 or so; (i.e., I’d like to up my stock share from where it is now))?

    Reading your reference to the likes of GameStop and following the recent aggressive explosion of new retail investors engaging in what seems to amount to widespread gambling has me hesitating at the moment. I know I can’t time the market but the current lack of fear seems like a really bad time to invest 25% of my investments. In brief, I am 57 and this 25% from the CDs, barring the type of cataclysmic event we have yet to see in my lifetime, is money that I presumably won’t ever need. I’d love to just invest it now or start to dollar cost average now but just hate to be a sucker given how the market has skyrocketed and not really looked back since the onset of the pandemic in March 2020.

    Thanks,
    Adam

    Reply
  27. Brian M. says

    March 4, 2021 at 2:35 am

    Dear JL,

    I consider you one of the honest ones out there. You have no agenda in your writings beyond telling the facts. Other trustworthy folks I lump in with you includes names like Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, and dearly departed Jack Bogle. One struggle I have, however, is seeing a quote like this from Munger, re diversification. He pours some pretty cold water on the broad diversification concept. I’m trying to reconcile two parties I respect a lot saying the exact opposite things. Please let me know if you have any thoughts on this. Here’s here’s recent quote (all pulled from a Yahoo article):
    >>>>>>>
    Munger observed that in the wealth management space “a lot of people think if they have 100 stocks they’re investing more professionally than they are if they have four or five.” “I regard this as insanity. Absolute insanity,” Munger said. “I think it’s much easier to find five than it is to find 100,” the 97-year-old investor argued. “I think the people who argue for all this diversification, by the way, I call it ‘diworsification,’ which I copied from somebody. And I’m way more comfortable owning two or three stocks which I think I know something about and where I think I have an advantage.”
    >>>>>>>>

    Thank you,
    Brian

    Reply
  28. Mark says

    March 4, 2021 at 9:26 pm

    I just wanted to say, “Thank you!” My wife has been with a privately held tech company for 25 years now. Others left to work for companies that went public to chase the get-rich-quick (few of them are). We stayed the course. We’re not fabulously wealthy, but we saw returns that you wouldn’t get in the stock market, and for most of those years the company stock was pure book value, so it was pretty secure, relatively speaking. Now we’re 50 and plan to work another 3 years or so, but we could retire tomorrow if we wanted to do so. Anyway, I was scared S-less about the idea of taking the money out of the company and actually having to actually invest it for the first time in my life. I was tempted to turn the money over to a “pro,” but all of these financial people we met with felt “wrong” to us. I read a lot of stuff, but when I read your book I gained the confidence that I could “do it right” without it being complicated. Also, your book gave me the insight that when the market drops I should move out of my wife’s company stock and take advantage. So 2020 worked out really well for us, apologies to the universe. We now have over 1/2 of our wealth out of the company stock, and by taking advantage of the dip we made more than enough money in the market to offset the income tax hit (although I did NOT invest the income tax payment itself in the market – I’m not that adventurous). I seriously doubt that I would have had the courage to pull of this transition without your book. So thank you. You’ve made a huge difference in our lives.

    Reply
  29. TheEngineer says

    March 5, 2021 at 7:32 am

    The general population (99 Percents) is hardwired with the burden of emotion.

    Emotion is the Achilles’ heel in investing.

    Manage your emotion to grow your investment.

    Reply
  30. Selma says

    March 12, 2021 at 3:51 pm

    I recently read an an analysis by Bridgewater (Ray Dalio’s firm) that showed there is great downside risk to bonds/bond funds based on risk of rising interest rates since we are near zero and have come to the end of long bond fund bull market of declining interest rates. If rates go to -1% he showed a possible upside 17% gain with unlimited downside risk if rates rise. With this in mind where does one invest one’s
    “safe” money? He was saying that bonds as a hedge to risk with stocks was no longer the case. VBTLX is -3% YTD. We are going to be retiring and wondering if our “safe” money will really be safe in a bond fund https://www.bridgewater.com/grappling-with-the-new-reality-of-zero-bond-yields-virtually-everywhere

    Reply
    • Southeast says

      March 13, 2021 at 1:42 pm

      Hello Selma,

      I was wondering the same thing. I don’t know if this will help, but here’s a post from the White Coat Investor called “In Defense of Bonds” that he published in 2016 and reposted last month. I thought his point number five was interesting, as well as some of the comments.
      https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/in-defense-of-bonds/

      Reply
      • Selma says

        March 23, 2021 at 11:50 am

        Thank you. I wish jlcollins would address this questions. My concern is risk with bond funds. If rates rise, won’t bond funds continue to be negative? And since we are almost at the bottom of the interest rate cycle isn’t this a significant risk. Fortunately my 401K has an insured bond fund that is protected from negative returns and earns about 3%. Though it doesn’t capitalize on bond returns when rates drop or if they go negative. Perhaps I don’t understand bond funds? I suppose if rates stay flat/stable you might get the return of the bonds /held. But with all of the stimulus and as Bridgewater outlines, inflation could very well kick in? Unless interest rates go negative/decline, I don’t understand how bond funds will net a return. Is there something I’m missing? Likewise stocks could be in a bubble as there has been on where to put your money. I realize the indexing model/bogle has worked historically, but aren’t we in a cycle we’e not been before? Though Ray Dalio does say we were in similar debt/interest rate cycle in the early 30’s/during the depression and war. After the 1929 stock market crash it took 30 years for it to regain its value. My husband and I are looking at retirement in the near future, so trying to sort this all out , as we have no pensions and can’t afford a big investing mistake.

        Reply
        • Ellen says

          March 24, 2021 at 10:04 am

          In fairness to Mr. Collins, he has addressed this question! Please read/re-read his entire blog, specifically, his stock series. Also, his numerous podcasts! He fully acknowledges the devastating damage a prolonged bear market could wreak on an uninformed, uneducated person’s portfolio, within which said person has invested in excess of his/her risk tolerance level. Mr. Collins is nothing, if not honest, engaging and up front. By one metric, perhaps Mr. Collins, if not, another astute investor, equities, may, indeed – (1929) – stand to lose up to 90% of their peak value! We all owe it to ourselves to continually educate ourselves! Best of luck!

          Reply
          • jlcollinsnh says

            March 24, 2021 at 11:31 am

            Thank you, Ellen.

            There is also a post in the Stock Series on bonds and a search button to help find more on this or any other subject here on the blog.

          • Selma says

            March 24, 2021 at 3:45 pm

            What I don’t understand is that if Bonds are the element of the portfolio to account for risk/safety, but bond funds are now risky because of economic cycle how do they act as risk edge. Ray Dalio’s latest- https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-world-would-you-own-bonds-when-ray-dalio/

          • Selma says

            March 24, 2021 at 3:54 pm

            Ellen- can you direct me to the podcasts? where can these be found? Thanks! Selma

        • Ellen says

          March 25, 2021 at 7:03 am

          Selma,

          Everything – the podcasts/interviews, etc. – are all located on Mr. Collins’ website. You may also search Google for this information.

          Reply
    • Southeast says

      March 24, 2021 at 4:17 pm

      Hello Selma,

      You mentioned “If rates rise, won’t bond funds continue to be negative?”

      Here’s another one from White Coat Investor titled “Bond Investors Should Not Fear Rising Interest Rates”
      https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/bond-investors-should-not-fear-rising-interest-rates/

      There is a lot of information in there that might address some of your concerns.

      Reply
  31. Outin10 says

    March 19, 2021 at 8:25 pm

    Hard lessons learned. At least it helped you discover the power of indexes.. which lead to writing the stock series, which influenced me 🙂

    Reply
  32. Froogal Stoodent says

    March 27, 2021 at 3:44 pm

    Is this the Lamson & Sessions that you mentioned at the beginning? http://www.lamson-sessions.com/OurHistory.html

    A quick Google search brought me there, so it’s probably too easy to be what you were talking about. Then again, according to that link, the company went public in 1928 and was listed on the Cleveland Stock Exchange.

    Reply
  33. Liz says

    April 12, 2021 at 4:34 pm

    Mr. Collins!

    How might one best get in touch with you if they wish to book you for an interview?

    I work for one of the largest real estate companies and our Executive Chairman would love the opportunity to interview you for one if his private sessions with our companies highest producers.

    Please feel free to follow up via the email I have submitted with this reply.

    Thank you for the consideration.

    Reply
  34. Mark says

    April 28, 2021 at 6:35 am

    Hi Mr. Collins! I enjoyed the article, as usual. I did catch one typo:

    “Ultimately there has to be an underlying business ‘sufficiant’ to support the stock price.”

    Cheers!

    Reply
    • Stefan Novak says

      April 28, 2021 at 7:13 am

      Yes that typo completely ruined this article for me. Completely unreadable. Worthless.

      Reply
      • Mark says

        April 28, 2021 at 10:01 am

        I didn’t mean to cause offense, but offered it in the spirit of helpfulness. I hope Mr. Collins will delete my post now that he has read it.

        Reply
        • jlcollinsnh says

          April 28, 2021 at 10:56 am

          No offense taken, Mark.

          I appreciate people pointing out typos and the like as correcting them makes the post better. For this reason, and to encourage others, I’ll leave yours up.

          Thanks!

          Reply
    • jlcollinsnh says

      April 28, 2021 at 8:20 am

      Typo? What typo? 😉

      Reply

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    • ► November (3)
      • Death, Taxes, Estate Plans, Probate and Prob8
      • Case Study #5: Zero to 2.6 million in 25 years
      • Case Study #4: Using the 4% rule and asset allocations.
    • ► October (3)
      • Republic Wireless and my $19 per month phone plan
      • Case Study #3: Let's get Tom to Latin America!
      • The Stock Series gets its own page
    • ► September (2)
      • Case Study #2: Joe -- off to a fast start!
      • Chautauqua 2013: A Week of Dreams
    • ► August (1)
      • Closing up shop plus an opening at Chautauqua, my new podcast, phone, book and other random cool stuff
    • ► July (1)
      • They Will Kill You For Your Shoes!
    • ► June (4)
      • Stocks -- Part VIII-b: Should you avoid your company's 401k?
      • Shilpan's Seven Habits to Live More with Less
      • Stocks -- Part XIX: How to think about money
      • My path for my kid -- the first 10 years
    • ► May (5)
      • Why your house is a terrible investment
      • Stocks — Part XVIII: Investing in a raging bull
      • Dining with the Ghosts of Sarah Bernhardt and Alfons Mucha
      • How we finally got the house sold
      • Stocks — Part XVII: What if you can't buy VTSAX? Or even Vanguard?
    • ► April (4)
      • Greetings from Prague & a computer question
      • Swimming with Tigers, a 2nd chance on the Chautauqua, a financial article gets it wrong and I'm off to Prague
      • Storage, Moving and Movers
      • Homeless, and a bit on the strategy of dollar cost averaging
    • ► March (4)
      • Wild Turkeys, Motorcycles, Dining Room Sets & Greed
      • Roots v. Wings: considering home ownership
      • How about that stock market?!
      • The Blog has New Clothes
    • ► February (5)
      • Meet Mr. Money Mustache, JD Roth, Cheryl Reed & me for a Chautauqua in Ecuador
      • High School Poetry, Carnival, cool ads and random pictures that caught my eye
      • Consignment Shops: Best business model ever?
      • Cafes
      • Stocks -- Part XVI: Index Funds are really just for lazy people, right?
    • ► January (5)
      • Social Security: How secure and when to take it
      • Fighting giraffes, surreal landscapes, dancing with unicorns and restoring a Vanagon
      • My plan for 2013
      • VITA, income taxes and the IRS
      • How to be a stock market guru and get on MSNBC
  • ► 2012 (53)
    • ► December (6)
      • See you next year....until then: The Origin of Life, Life on Other Worlds, Mechanical Graveyards, Great Art, Alternative Lifestyles and Finding Freedom
      • Stocks -- Part XV: Target Retirement Funds, the simplest path to wealth of all
      • Stocks -- Part XIV: Deflation, the ugly escort of Depressions.
      • Stocks Part XIV: Deflation, the ugly escort of Depressions.
      • Stocks -- Part XIII: The 4% rule, withdrawal rates and how much can I spend anyway?
      • How I learned to stop worrying about the Fiscal Cliff and you can too.
    • ► November (2)
      • Rent v. owning: A couple of case studies in Ecuador
      • So, what does a month in Ecuador cost anyway?
    • ► October (4)
      • See you in December....
      • Meet me in Ecuador?
      • The Podcast: You can hear me now.
      • Stocks -- Part XII: Bonds
    • ► September (6)
      • Stocks -- Part XI: International Funds
      • The Smoother Path to Wealth
      • Case Study #I: Putting the Simple Path to Wealth into Action
      • Tales of Bolivia: Calle de las Brujas
      • Stocks -- Part X: What if Vanguard gets Nuked?
      • Travels in South America: It was the best of times....
    • ► August (1)
      • Home again
    • ► June (4)
      • Yellow Fever, closing up shop for the summer and heading to Peru y Bolivia
      • I could not have said it better myself...
      • Stocks -- Part IX: Why I don't like investment advisors
      • Happy Birthday, jlcollinsnh; and thanks for the gift Mr. MM!
    • ► May (6)
      • Stocks -- Part VIII: The 401K, 403b, TSP, IRA & Roth Buckets
      • Mr. Money Mustache
      • The College Conundrum
      • Stocks -- Part VII: Can everyone really retire a millionaire?
      • Stocks -- Part VI: Portfolio ideas to build and keep your wealth
      • Stocks -- Part V: Keeping it simple, considerations and tools
    • ► April (6)
      • Stocks -- Part IV: The Big Ugly Event, Deflation and a bit on Inflation
      • Stocks -- Part III: Most people lose money in the market.
      • Stocks -- Part II: The Market Always Goes Up
      • Stocks -- Part 1: There's a major market crash coming!!!! and Dr. Lo can't save you.
      • You can eat my Vindaloo, mega lottery, Blondie, Noa, Israel Kamakawiwo 'Ole, art, film and a ride on the Space Shuttle
      • Where in the world are you?
    • ► March (7)
      • How I lost money in real estate before it was fashionable, Part V: Sold! and the taxman cometh.
      • How I lost money in real estate before it was fashionable, Part IV: I become a Landlord.
      • How I lost money in real estate before it was fashionable, Part III: The Battle is Joined.
      • How I lost money in real estate before it was fashionable, Part II: The Limits of the Law.
      • How I lost money in real estate before it was fashionable, Part I: Impossibly Naive.
      • You, too, can be conned
      • Armageddon and the value of practical skills
    • ► February (6)
      • Rent v. Owning Your Home, opportunity cost and running some numbers
      • The Casanova Kid, a Shit Knife, a Good Book, Having No Regrets, Dark Matter and a bit of Magic
      • What Poker, Basketball and Mike Whitaker taught me about Luck
      • How to Give like a Billionaire
      • Go ahead, make my day
      • Muk Finds Success in Tahiti
    • ► January (5)
      • Travels with "Esperando un Camino"
      • Beanie Babies, Naked Barbie, American Pickers and Old Coots
      • Selling the House and Adventures in Staging
      • The bashing of Index Funds, Jack Bogle and a Jedi dog trick
      • Magic Beans
  • ► 2011 (22)
    • ► December (1)
      • Dividend Growth Investing
    • ► November (2)
      • The Mummy's head, Particle Physics and "Knocking on Heaven's Door"
      • "It's Better in the Wind" or why I ride a motorcycle
    • ► October (1)
      • Lazy Days and School Days
    • ► July (2)
      • The road to Zanzibar sometimes goes thru Ecuador...
      • Johnny wins the lotto and heads to Paris
    • ► June (16)
      • Chainsaws, Elm Trees and paying for College
      • Stuff I’ve failed at: the early years
      • Snatching Victory from the Jaws of Defeat
      • The. Worst. Used. Car. Ever.
      • Top Ten reasons your future is so bright it hurts my eyes to look at it
      • The Most Dangerous Words Your Customer Can Say
      • How not to drown in The Sea of Assholes
      • What we own and why we own it
      • The Ten Sales Commandments
      • My ever so formal and oh so dry CV
      • How I failed my daughter and a simple path to wealth
      • The Myth of Motivation
      • Why you need F-you money
      • My short attention span
      • Why I can’t pick winning stocks, and you can’t either
      • The Monk and the Minister

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