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You are here: Home / Life / Why I will no longer be writing this blog

Why I will no longer be writing this blog

by jlcollinsnh 114 Comments

My ship has come in and I am riding off into the sunset. To mix a couple of metaphors.

If you are a fan, you are likely a bit shocked and disappointed. I am sorry for that.

If you are one of my detractors, like Bob here on twitter…

Bob’s Backtested Bunker

“the fact that a single person would listen to your nonsense is criminal”

…your prayers have been answered.

As for me, this is the result of splendid news and, for a select handful of you, it could be that too.

Here’s why…

I have cracked the market timing code

For almost ten years now I have been telling you nobody, but nobody, can successfully time the market. I’ve mocked the very idea.

Oh, sure, some get it right once in awhile. I did back in 2013, ironically by creating a contest to prove it can’t be done.

But regular readers and listeners to podcasts I’ve been on, have also heard me say I actually achieved FI before I embraced index fund investing. I did it picking stocks and actively managed funds run by stock pickers. I’ve routinely confessed to having the “stock picking disease” and have talked about how addictive it is.

I’ve also shared with you that I have been investing since 1975. That’s 45 years and counting. Boy howdy!

But what I have never shared is, that all along that time, I have been searching for the true key to market timing. Like an alechemst seeking to create gold or a pilgrim searching for the Holy Grail.

I didn’t share this as it is a bit embarrassing, as is the search for anything that all evidence suggests isn’t there.

For the first three-plus decades I focused on researching the claims of those who said they had done this. None of those held up.

But then, slowly, I began to transition into working on my own market timing formulas and approaches.

For years, one after another, these crashed and burned.

Remember, I wasn’t looking for something that seemed to work so that I could fool the public, like those I had investigated. I was looking for a strategy that worked, and worked reliably in all market conditions. I was looking for nothing less than…

The Holy Grail of Investing

But, as Indiana Jones was told, you must…

“Choose wisely, for while the true Grail will bring you life, the false Grail will take it from you.”

No wonder it took me over 40 years.

I actually hit upon it in July 2018, but couldn’t quite believe it at the time.

Until, week after week, it began predicting the market’s moves with an uncanny accuracy. At first, I dismissed these results. Remember, on a fundamental level I didn’t believe market timing was possible, let alone that I’d be the one to crack the code.

Plus, it kept predicting the market would rise and, let’s be honest here, it had been doing that since 2009.

But as the weeks unfolded, the precision of the moves it predicted couldn’t help but impress.

Then, on September 12th, it suddenly predicted a sharp drop. This was something new and, sure enough, on the 14th the market (S&P500) peaked at 2905 and went on to plunge to 2659 by October 10th. 

The strategy then predicted the market would bounce between 2640 and 2750 through November. It did exactly that, hitting a low of 2632 on November 11th and a high of 2760 on the 30th.

By the end of November it was signaling a pending bear market for December. Even with all its success over the past serveral months, I found this hard to accept. After all, we hadn’t seen a real bear since 2007-9 and there was nothing in the news that looked like a trigger for one. 

So, I didn’t act.

Indeed, I hadn’t put any real money to the test up to that point. It still just didn’t seem possible that my formulas were working, let alone so well. 

Along with the rest of the world, I endured the bear and stayed the course. Just as my previous philosophy called for.

The bear got steadily worse and then, on December 19th the indicators called for a bottom before Christmas of 2450. This couldn’t be right. A bear market that came and went in less than a month?

But by now I was convinced, and determined to push all my VBTLX (bonds) into my VTSAX (stocks) on the 21st. But I didn’t.

I just forgot.

I blame the Christmas rush and its distractions. Or maybe it was just my subconscious still resisting the idea. By the time I remembered, the market had closed. At 2417, only 28 points off the prediction.

But now I was fully convinced. Maybe not enough to tell the whole world (until deciding to write this post I’ve been on the fence about that) but enough to put my money up.

The system called the decline of May 2019 and I sold all my VTSAX late April, buying it all back just before the bottom May 31st. This included the VBTLX I had been holding.

From there I rode the rise to 3026 on July 26th when I sold, avoiding the drop to 2847 reached on August 23rd. The following Monday the 26th, following the system’s call, I went fully back into VTSAX and held it all the way until February 14th, 2020.

Then a major sell signal surfaced.

At that point, I almost didn’t follow the system. The drop it was now calling for seemed impossible: 35% by Friday March 20th.

I gave myself the weekend to think it over and on Tuesday February 18th (markets were closed that Monday for Presidents’ Day) I again moved out of VTSAX and into cash (VMMXX), now no longer bothering with VBTLX.

For several days nothing much happened, and I began to wonder if my system had somehow failed. But, then…

Well, we all know what happened then.

Then the system predicted last week’s (March 23rd) sharp rise, something I saw predicted no where else. Again, for a brief moment I doubted.

This call was for a rise so sharp it would be the best weekly increase since 2009. A prediction so unexpected, so bold, so definitive as to defy belief.

But this time I didn’t even hesitate. I followed it, to my great profit once again.

Many times over the years I have said, in the process of discounting the possibility, that actually being able to time the market would be a fiscal superpower. That was just a concept then.

Having now lived with this ability for almost 18 months, the increase in my net worth is staggering. Far beyond what I had ever imagined. Never suffering through a loss and never missing out on a rise…

…well, it speaks for itself.

You’ll notice the title of this post says nothing about market timing or this strategy. There are a couple of reasons for that.

  1. A title with “market timing” would be click-baity and would attract readers not familiar with this blog.
  2. A title saying I’ll no longer be posting after this, which is true, would only be of interest to my regular readers. This message is only for you.

The more cynical amongst you are probably saying to yourselves, “Ah, here it comes. The sales pitch for the market timing newsletter.”

Truth be told, I thought about doing just that. But then I realized that this system would begin to fail if it became too widely known. And, as the first few subscribers began to share their results, it would explode. I’m afraid I am not generous enough to risk losing my golden goose.

Still, I am not so selfish as to keep it only to myself.

So here’s what I have come up with: I will share this system with 20 individuals and those slots will be offered by auction.

Slots will go to the highest bidders and you can bid in one of two ways:

  1. A dollar amount, with the minimum bid starting at $1,000,000.
  2. A percent of your net worth, the minimum starting at 70%.

The second option is there just to ensure these spots don’t simply go to the richest of my readers. Oh, and if you chose to bid by net worth, know that you’ll be required to verify it.

With this system already well on the way to making me a billionaire, why am I bothering to charge for it? Simple: It has an awesome value I don’t want wasted on those unwilling to have major skin in the game. 

For those of you who don’t have the chance to use my new system, I still leave you the next best thing: The Stock Series and The Simple Path to Wealth.

That’s it.

It has been a great ride, thanks for coming along.

Enjoy your journey!

Oh, and be sure to read this before you go.

***********************************************

I had a great time recording this live with Talaat & Tai over on His and Her Money…

How to handle your investments in times like these

We talked about this COVID-19 driven market and investing in general, and we took some live questions from their listeners.

***********************************************

Here are three books I’ve enjoyed while on virus lockdown.

No fooling!

I am an avid reader of both fiction and non-fiction, and find great value in both.

Over the years I have had some friends brag that they only read non-fiction, not wasting their time on fiction. This, to me, is short sighted and shows a lack of understanding what good fiction really is.

Basically it is an imaginary tale but, done well, the facts and setting around it are well researched and sound. That information, being wrapped in a memorable story, is more easily and permanently learned.

We have been swapping tales, and learning lessons from them, since the times we sat around the fire at our cave’s entrance eating delicious meals of woolly mammoth stew.

Until recently, I hadn’t come across any FI fiction. But these two from Dave and Chana Mason are just that, and they are both page turningly good.

Non-fiction, of course, still has its place and this is a good one from Leisa Peterson…

In it she explores the psychological and spiritual side of money. I’ve read other books out there that try and fail on this score. It is, like fiction, tough to do well. This book does it very well indeed.

All three of these books taught me new things and gave me new perspectives on things I already know. Maybe they will for you, too.

***********************************************

 

Related

Important Resources

  • Talent Stacker is a resource that I learned about through my work with Jonathan and Brad at ChooseFI, and first heard about Salesforce as a career option in an episode where we featured Bradley Rice on the Podcast. In that episode, Bradley shared how he reached FI quickly thanks to his huge paychecks and discipline in keeping his expenses low. Jonathan teamed up with Bradley to build Talent Stacker, and they have helped more than 1,000 students from all walks of life complete the program and land jobs like clockwork, earning double or even triple their old salaries using a Salesforce certification to break into a no-code tech career.
  • Credit Cards are like chain saws. Incredibly useful. Incredibly dangerous. Resolve to pay in full each month and never carry a balance. Do that and they can be great tools. Here are some of the very best for travel hacking, cash back and small business rewards.
  • Personal Capital is a free tool to manage and evaluate your investments. With great visuals you can track your net worth, asset allocation, and portfolio performance, including costs. At a glance you'll see what's working and what you might want to change. Here's my full review.
  • Betterment is my recommendation for hands-off investors who prefer a DIFM (Do It For Me) approach. It is also a great tool for reaching short-term savings goals. Here is my Betterment Review
  • NewRetirement offers cool tools to help guide you in answering the question: Do I have enough money to retire? And getting started is free. Sign up and you will be offered two paths into their retirement planner. I was also on their podcast and you can check that out here:Video version, Podcast version.
  • Tuft & Needle (T&N) helps me sleep at night. They are a very cool company with a great product. Here’s my review of what we are currently sleeping on: Our Walnut Frame and Mint Mattress.
  • Vanguard.com

Filed Under: Life, Money

« My move from VMMXX to VBTLX
Reviewing the comments on my post of April 1st »

Comments

  1. The Crusher says

    April 1, 2020 at 1:26 am

    Good one, it took me a few paragraphs before I realized it is April Fools! Nicely done!!

    And for the record, I was completely bummed that you would be no longer posting. 🙂

    Reply
    • John says

      April 3, 2020 at 5:31 pm

      So Mr. Collins is not going to quit writing the blogs right???

      Reply
  2. Edward says

    April 1, 2020 at 1:26 am

    Sure lol my net worth is negative so I bid 100% of my net worth lol

    Reply
    • manuel says

      April 1, 2020 at 9:51 pm

      Haha smart! That means he’ll pay off your debts instead

      Reply
  3. FireAussie says

    April 1, 2020 at 1:27 am

    Happy April Fools!

    Reply
  4. Emma says

    April 1, 2020 at 1:30 am

    Haha Happy April Fools day to you too!

    Reply
  5. wendy says

    April 1, 2020 at 1:31 am

    umm Jim, it’s April 1st, no foolin’
    ’cause if you really believed that sh*t, we’d come and kick your keister, don’t care how many stock picks you have…
    But instead, we have the joy and love of humor in these difficult times
    🙂

    Be safe my friend, and keep the humor flowing

    Reply
    • David Dodd says

      April 1, 2020 at 7:36 am

      Love this post, and happy living. Stay Safe and a Healthy Sir! ! By the way read the wealthy accountant this month , good stuff for the young uns,,,,

      Reply
  6. Lee Turner says

    April 1, 2020 at 1:33 am

    Nice try. Aprils fools 🙂

    Reply
  7. Anders says

    April 1, 2020 at 1:35 am

    Jim,
    It’s 10.30 pm here on pacific time, not even April 1st yet!
    And that’s nothing to joke about….

    Reply
  8. Tabitha says

    April 1, 2020 at 1:35 am

    ;P

    Reply
  9. Michele Conner says

    April 1, 2020 at 1:39 am

    It’s not quite April 1st on the west coast. Put a Smile on my face before turning in. I can see you wickedly smiling as you write this.

    Reply
  10. Eric M says

    April 1, 2020 at 1:43 am

    Dang, you got me! Please send back my $1,000,000. /blush

    Reply
    • Lesley says

      April 1, 2020 at 4:56 am

      Ditto!

      Reply
  11. Keith says

    April 1, 2020 at 1:43 am

    Didn’t you get the memo? April Fool’s was cancelled this year!

    Thanks for the laugh, Jim — much needed.

    Reply
  12. Stacy says

    April 1, 2020 at 1:48 am

    Enjoyable post, Happy April Fools Day

    Reply
  13. Brett Lee says

    April 1, 2020 at 1:54 am

    Thanks for your advice. Kathy and I liquidated Everything!! We’ve decided to move in with you and invest our seventy percent. Please send me your address.
    Yours truly,
    Brett and Kathy

    Reply
    • jlcollinsnh says

      April 5, 2020 at 6:49 am

      Let’s make it easy.

      Just send me all your money and I’ll, er, invest it for you.

      Oh, and my address is in the mail.

      Reply
  14. David Crabill says

    April 1, 2020 at 1:54 am

    You got me for about 3 seconds. I was legitimately shocked. And then, I realized that it was April 1st (in your time zone, at least). Good job! It was fun to read. 🙂

    Reply
  15. Guido says

    April 1, 2020 at 1:59 am

    Bloody hell, you made me nauseous for a while there mate, bad way to wake up!
    Haha

    Reply
  16. TJ says

    April 1, 2020 at 2:03 am

    Would love this to be an April 1 joke. You have been a great asset to the community and hope you remain so for a very long time.

    Reply
  17. Tabitha says

    April 1, 2020 at 2:13 am

    Well played Sir, well played…

    Would be incredibly disappointing if you really did stop writing this blog. It’s one of the true touchstones of sanity in this current craziness.

    Reply
  18. N T says

    April 1, 2020 at 2:27 am

    Such a relief to read the above posts! Phew, it is April 1st…. I must say that was a good one. You definitely got me.

    You have been very instrumental in helping me on the simple path to wealth/financial independence. After having a rough road with an ill husband with Lymphoma and undergoing a stem cell transplant in 2011 and now currently hospitalized for the last 8 days with Covid 19, I have to thank your for writing your book. I would not bee where I am today, if it wasn’t for what I learned from you. I feel secure and know I have everything in order and focus on family and health.

    Please keep posting!
    Nicole

    Reply
  19. Christian O says

    April 1, 2020 at 2:41 am

    Great Aprils fool!!!, you had me in the first part 🙂

    Reply
  20. Andrew says

    April 1, 2020 at 2:44 am

    Didn’t even think of April fools… Guess the joke was on me.

    You’re a soothing voice of reason in this time of chaos Jim….

    Reply
  21. Nikolai Vladivostok says

    April 1, 2020 at 2:46 am

    I have a negative net worth. Are you cool with taking on 70% of my debt in return for your formula?

    Good job. You got me a beauty. Didn’t twig until the first comment. Serves me right, too, because I went a bit overboard this time last year.

    Reply
  22. Adam Taylor says

    April 1, 2020 at 2:48 am

    Luckily this arrived April 1st GMT.
    Almost had me, what a “xxxx” I thought. Not Collins too! Hahaha, very good.

    Reply
  23. Special K says

    April 1, 2020 at 3:01 am

    I had the same thought as Adam, above: “What an arse!” Thank God I read the comments! Ha ha ha! Nice job!

    Reply
  24. Lon says

    April 1, 2020 at 3:21 am

    I now realize that I’m a bit gullible. I took the bait, hook, line and sinker. I imagine it’s because I somehow feel like I know you after reading your blogs for so long and somehow trusted you to some degree. As I was reading this I felt feelings of betrayal, anger and sadness. I must say this was the best AF JK in all of my 54 yrs hahaha. Jim, please do me one favor, If you ever do crack the code, please don’t tell a single soul. You would have more people hunting for you than Osama Bin Laden.

    Reply
    • Greyman says

      April 1, 2020 at 11:49 am

      I’ll admit to being a gullible idiot, as well. I very recently discovered this blog and Jim’s Youtube videos/talks; they’ve been a great source of comfort and rationality with everything going on. This post gave me quite the fright.

      Reply
  25. Jack says

    April 1, 2020 at 3:24 am

    I thought “oh no I’ve been spending years recommending this guy to everyone”… I only twigged it was April fools when you said about a bidding war… phew!!! 🙂

    Reply
  26. John Watson says

    April 1, 2020 at 3:45 am

    I read very intently and with great shock until about you actions in May, and then I burst into laughter!
    Good one!

    Reply
  27. Steve says

    April 1, 2020 at 3:50 am

    You fooled me – great job. I’m smiling now.

    Reply
  28. vorlic says

    April 1, 2020 at 4:04 am

    I knew all along. Deep down it didn’t make sense. It couldn’t have been so simple, because everyone knows that “simple” means “easy”. I don’t like this crash, it’s different. It isn’t easy or simple. You’re just another conman. Doing one thing and saying another. I’ll never forgive you.

    Reply
    • TJ says

      April 1, 2020 at 1:14 pm

      Vorlic, please just go away. You are not needed to attack Mr Collins. You don’t like what he has to say, which is fine. Go find someone you do like what they have to say. You add nothing to the conversation.
      Many people are in a better place financially because of JL, myself included, and I love him for that.
      Please, just go away and attack someone else. I hope JL blocks you, I don’t want to hear any more of what you have to say and believe I speak for most people here.

      Reply
      • vorlic says

        April 2, 2020 at 9:57 am

        Gotcha!

        Reply
    • jlcollinsnh says

      April 5, 2020 at 6:54 am

      You should have listened to Bob. 🙂

      Reply
      • vorlic says

        November 2, 2020 at 11:34 am

        Mr Collins, how are you these days? Can’t help imagining that you’re holed up on a deserted island in South-East Asia, waiting out the storm…!

        Staying sane?

        We sure are (mostly!), working towards our freedom (what else can one do?) and hope to get to a Chautauqua when the world returns to some semblance of free life and such gatherings are deemed once more by our glorious authorities to be “safe” (whatever the heck that means). I mean, let’s face it, for some, freedom has always been a lethal proposition. Most need to be told what to think, what to do, what to wear, what to buy… and that is why the market will always rise over time.

        Yours, stayin’ the course. It sure is a simple path, but it sometimes sure ain’t easy.

        We tell the kids – “BE TOUGH – LIFE IS!”

        All the very best, JL.

        Vorlic

        Reply
  29. Dawn from UK says

    April 1, 2020 at 4:22 am

    Like the other readers I read the post with shear dread, disbelief and disappointment.
    Your may favourite fi blogger.
    Half way through I thought, this is an April fool.🤔
    Sooo relieved, phew!
    I sent my sister a picture of your book simple path to wealth. I said get this book your boys 16 and 18 years of age. It’s the most valuable thing you could ever get them.
    I wish someone had given me your book when I was 18.
    Looking fwd to your future posts as always.

    Reply
  30. Alex says

    April 1, 2020 at 4:22 am

    Greatly done! You’re a legend!

    Reply
  31. Vika says

    April 1, 2020 at 4:51 am

    Ha, you had me for much longer than I want to admit 🙂 JLC, and I was shocked and sad to lose you. I’m wondering about market timing in these volatile times myself, wouldn’t that be nice? But thanks to you these are just fleeting thoughts that come and go easily.

    Well written, thank you for bringing a bit of excitement during these trying times!

    Reply
  32. Kenneth F. LaVoie III says

    April 1, 2020 at 5:26 am

    You B**TARD! You got me!

    Hey I just wanted to give a shout out to you as well. I drifted away from the simpler path, started putting my IRAs into more diverse collections of ETFs, BDCs, REITs, mREITS, CLO funds, etc. Did great last year My 60/40 type portfolio got 28% vs. a typical 60/40 of 20%. Also turned 2K into 40K in 2017 in Bitcoin which pushed my total return to 23% vs 13% for a 60/40. But … I was not prepared for what happened to my IRAs during this mess. My portfolios, even with some good ballast (about 20-25% Vanguard total bond, and vanguard TIPS) plunged 25% in a week. So my “60/40” mix matched being 100% in SPY for crying out loud. I’ve never been so disappointed in myself in my life. I’ve decided to turn my IRAs over to my FA, just to reassure my wife that I won’t have a heartattack the next time the market plunges (I was not fit to be around, despite heroic efforts to hide the bulk of my being horrified)

    I’ve fallen in love with the “simple way” again. This was reinforced because I also manage my wife and daughter’s money. Daughter? Vanguard STAR and Vanguard Wellington. Yes, managed, but my God they pulled through just fine. My wife’s is just in a very dignified 60/40 mix of vanguard index funds. Lost 14% peak to trough (so far).

    This is very humbling to post this but I wanted to because I am now a poster child for taking the simpler way. I probably spent on average an hour a day researching investments, only to fall flat on my face.

    Looking forward to socking away as much as I can in our solo 401ks so I can earn my way to managing all our money again, THE RIGHT WAY.

    Thank you for all you do.

    Reply
  33. Debbie D says

    April 1, 2020 at 5:38 am

    You had me for about 2- 3 sentences and then I realized what day it was. Well played for the clickbait.

    Reply
  34. Rye says

    April 1, 2020 at 6:07 am

    The tone of your post reminds me of past ones, I thought to myself… now which ones were they… oh yes… April fools!

    Reply
  35. SATPAL says

    April 1, 2020 at 6:28 am

    You got me Jim. Happy April Fools Day. Stay safe and keep sharing your pearls of wisdom. God knows we need it in these crazy and scary times.

    Reply
  36. Christopher Tango says

    April 1, 2020 at 6:38 am

    Jim,
    I really thought you completely lost your mind. Took me a bit to realize it was April Fools.
    Be safe. Thanks for the humor and thanks for the all the great advice. It has changed my life.

    Chris

    Reply
  37. Faith says

    April 1, 2020 at 6:42 am

    Erg! I hate that I am soooo gullible even as the voice in the back of my head is humming….”this makes no sense”. Thank goodness for the comments. And thank goodness for you! Take care. 🌸

    Reply
  38. Cline says

    April 1, 2020 at 7:21 am

    Well , the world is a crazy place right now. I could believe almost anything right now!

    Reply
  39. Hazel Brown says

    April 1, 2020 at 7:46 am

    Holy shit. I totally believed this right up to the comments section. I either need significantly more coffee this morning, or I really have lost my mind to this virus situation!

    Reply
  40. Chris Sells says

    April 1, 2020 at 7:57 am

    I hate April fool’s day. It ruins the internet.

    Reply
  41. Ladysplaining Money says

    April 1, 2020 at 8:45 am

    We are too fragile for a let-down of this magnitude. Read two times through until I got to the comments and realized how gullible I was. ha

    Reply
  42. Geo says

    April 1, 2020 at 8:51 am

    April Fool’s!

    Reply
  43. Dionisio says

    April 1, 2020 at 9:00 am

    I read the headline and selfishly thought, “Crap…I just found one of the best writers worth reading,” and now he is gone. Glad I continued to read the entertainment that followed!

    Reply
  44. Jager says

    April 1, 2020 at 9:04 am

    Mr. Collins,
    This is great–well played! As with the other commenters, your headline had me thoroughly dismayed at 0645 EDT. As I read, however, disappointment turned to a chuckle and a sense of relief. As others have said, you’re welcome to some of this negative net worth! 🙂

    All the best from Central VA!

    –Jager

    Reply
  45. Rich on Money says

    April 1, 2020 at 9:09 am

    You should write a book. Well, another book. If you need someone to proofread it, let me know. I promise I won’t use your secrets for evil. (fingers crossed)

    Reply
  46. Ken says

    April 1, 2020 at 9:11 am

    Very well done. You got me! I was literally cursing your name. I’ve never commented on here before, although I read your entire blog and your book. Thanks for making us all smile this morning!

    Reply
  47. Jordan says

    April 1, 2020 at 9:11 am

    I’ll admit it… You got me too.

    Reply
  48. Kevin says

    April 1, 2020 at 9:11 am

    You got me! To early here to realize the date.

    Reply
  49. Tom D says

    April 1, 2020 at 9:11 am

    Some of us in our mid-80’s can’t take April Fool jokes like this. Love it! Stay safe, well, and happy.

    Reply
  50. Lisa Lubin says

    April 1, 2020 at 9:16 am

    That was a roller coaster! Okay, nice fiction writing!
    I was so sad by the headline. Then I was so confused as I kept reading. I literally said, “what?!” a few times out loud as I was reading.
    Then I got to the bidding part and snapped into the joke. Phew! You’ve always been so truthful and so rational… this couldn’t be true!
    Good one.
    And so glad you are not going anywhere.

    Reply
  51. Connie says

    April 1, 2020 at 9:37 am

    Took me a couple paragraphs, but Happy April Fools!

    Reply
  52. BA says

    April 1, 2020 at 9:45 am

    Thanks goodness for the comment section – can’t believe I fell for it!!

    Reply
  53. Isaiah says

    April 1, 2020 at 9:48 am

    Man oh man you had me there. I was actually thinking “he is dying and can’t bring himself to say it.” I thought your Indiana Jones quote was supposed to be a hint about that. Very nice Fools 🙂

    Reply
  54. CK says

    April 1, 2020 at 9:49 am

    SOB! You totally got me! I was going to ask you to share the wealth with the little people.

    Reply
  55. LivelyFL says

    April 1, 2020 at 9:50 am

    I cannot believe you got me! I was running half across the field before I got to the end and realized you still had the ball in your hand.

    Reply
    • vorlic says

      April 2, 2020 at 10:05 am

      Lovely analogy!

      Reply
  56. Stephanie says

    April 1, 2020 at 9:52 am

    🤣🤣🤣

    Reply
  57. Sue Reynolds says

    April 1, 2020 at 9:59 am

    Dude…..seriously, you almost gave me a heart attack.

    Reply
  58. Todd says

    April 1, 2020 at 10:03 am

    Uncle Jim!

    I was terribly thrown…..until several paragraphs later.

    Whew!

    Happy April Fool’s Day to You.

    – Todd

    Reply
  59. Joe says

    April 1, 2020 at 10:12 am

    I was scratching my head wondering what had happened to you. Why did you sound so crazy all of a sudden?!?! I am so glad I don’t have to be depressed all day.

    You jerk! 🙂

    Reply
  60. Penny says

    April 1, 2020 at 10:23 am

    I enjoyed that.

    Reply
  61. Au says

    April 1, 2020 at 10:50 am

    I am not foolish enough to seek a fool-proof market timing system, I believe it is much more productive to develop a formula for turning lead into gold. For years I have been toiling in my basement laboratory to no avail. I lost my fingerprints, most of my teeth and can’t have children anymore. Then one day while I was vacationing in England, I came upon a long forgotten alchemy manuscript by Sir Isaac Newton in an obscure small book shop in Cambridge. After studying it for 15 years, deciphering Newton’s annotations and running countless experiments, I found the flaw that Sir Isaac missed. I can now successfully turn lead into gold, which turned out to be very profitable with the price of gold soaring during the current crises.

    Like you Jim, I am very reluctant to share my secret since sharing it can depress the price of gold and I will literally lose my golden goose. But since I have such great respect for you, I am willing to trade my formula for your market timing system, provided you will not disclose it to anyone else. We wouldn’t want to live in a place where the streets are paved with gold.

    Reply
    • jlcollinsnh says

      April 5, 2020 at 6:57 am

      You’ve got a deal, Au!

      “We wouldn’t want to live in a place where the streets are paved with gold.”

      Maybe just the streets in our neighborhood? 😉

      Reply
  62. Gi Gi says

    April 1, 2020 at 10:55 am

    April Fool’s hahah haha!

    Reply
  63. dana says

    April 1, 2020 at 10:55 am

    you had me til cracked the code haha

    Reply
  64. Tom says

    April 1, 2020 at 11:17 am

    Nice joke but I really hope this is not your last post.

    Reply
  65. Matt says

    April 1, 2020 at 12:18 pm

    Still reeling and nauseous here…
    thank you to those who pointed out the date…

    Reply
  66. Bill says

    April 1, 2020 at 12:45 pm

    Dang it Jim, why’d you have to publish this on April Fool’s day? You could’ve had my pennies and turn them into that Billion.

    Oh well, the bright side is,this blog continues.

    Reply
  67. Brian says

    April 1, 2020 at 1:08 pm

    Where do I send my $1,000,000??

    Reply
    • David Weller says

      April 4, 2020 at 8:33 pm

      To the Nigerian Prince, just like everyone else (:

      Reply
  68. Samantha says

    April 1, 2020 at 1:11 pm

    You got me good, JL, and I never fall for April Fools jokes! I was so pissed off when I first read this last night and thought to myself, “Why is he saying the opposite of EVERYTHING he has preached this whole time?” Well played, sir! 🤣

    Reply
  69. Will says

    April 1, 2020 at 1:26 pm

    You got me Jim! Oh my, the wave of relief when I realised what it was!

    Reply
  70. Ralph says

    April 1, 2020 at 1:47 pm

    Love it!!

    Reply
  71. Rob says

    April 1, 2020 at 1:54 pm

    JL you got me good as well! Sheesh….I was so angry by the time I finished the post. Continue the blog, and onward to many happy returns! Buy the dip, hold forever!

    Reply
  72. Nick says

    April 1, 2020 at 2:53 pm

    With everything else going on I forgot what day it is. I was happy for you, but sad this would come to an end here. Then I made it a little further in the post and realized, ya… you got me.

    Well done. Thanks for making me smile 🙂

    Reply
  73. Melinda Mitchell says

    April 1, 2020 at 3:23 pm

    Oh man! You really got me. 100%. I was so sad and complaining to my husband all morning. I still could not believe it and came back to the site to read again and finally read the comments. Phew! It is clear from how gullible I am that I need your advice even more. You have been a voice of calm in all this crazy. Please keep up the amazing work! Because of you, I have only lost so far what I never would have gained in the first place if it was not for you. Stay the course!

    Reply
  74. Mark H. says

    April 1, 2020 at 3:39 pm

    You got me good, although I was really scratching my head as it was so inconsistent with your sage wisdom!

    So glad you aren’t hanging it up!!!

    Reply
  75. Laila says

    April 1, 2020 at 3:46 pm

    LOL OMG you really got me! I can’t believe I fell for this!

    Reply
  76. Bryan says

    April 1, 2020 at 4:08 pm

    Wow, I was crestfallen. Didn’t realize it was April Fools until I read the comments. Stoked the blog will continue 🙂

    Reply
  77. Mr.Thomas says

    April 1, 2020 at 6:59 pm

    Such an inconceivable idea in my head, it made me realize that it must be April Fool’s Day just from the headline. Even as the thought creeps into my head that one day you will actually be done. I want to thank you for all of your information over time though. This blog gave me the expectation for moments like these and your information and guidance through this blog gave my family the strength to watch a significant portion of our net worth vaporize and know that it’s all part of how these things work and we are not worried. I would call this a complete success in my back. Thank you for all you’ve provided to the community.

    Reply
  78. rob says

    April 2, 2020 at 12:51 am

    I moved everything from VTSAX to TSLA! 😀

    Reply
  79. Edoardo says

    April 2, 2020 at 7:58 am

    you almost killed me

    Reply
  80. Alexander says

    April 2, 2020 at 9:07 am

    Hi Jim,

    I am a great fan of yours. I have your book both in paper and digital, and it is a great resource. Thank you for that! Now, I have a question for you. I just saw this interview with Michael Burry (the hero of The Big Short), and he says that:

    “index fund inflows are now distorting prices for stocks and bonds in much the same way that CDO purchases did for subprime mortgages more than a decade ago. The flows will reverse at some point, he said, and “it will be ugly” when they do.”
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-04/michael-burry-explains-why-index-funds-are-like-subprime-cdos

    What is your view on this? Is this something we should worry about?

    Reply
    • jlcollinsnh says

      April 2, 2020 at 10:37 am

      Here you go…

      https://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2019/09/12/michael-burry-index-funds/#comment-2701784

      Reply
      • Alexander says

        April 2, 2020 at 10:58 am

        That helps a lot! Thank you so much, for next time I promise to do better research beforehand 🙂

        Reply
  81. E in NYC says

    April 2, 2020 at 10:55 am

    Dear Jim,

    I saw this message yesterday and almost cried. I’m a longtime blog reader and book buyer – I have gifted your book to several grateful friends – and have read every part of your Stock Series multiple times. It played a huge part in building my financial literacy. It led me to start buying VTSAX IN 2014 and stick with it through this latest downtown. It led me and my husband to keep renting. It led me to set up a call with Vanguard to discuss moving all our assets to them. I’m so well steeped in your philosophy that the stock market drop is the one aspect of the coronavirus crisis that’s NOT stressing me out right now! So before I realized it was a joke, I was crushed that your wisdom and straight talk might be leaving the stage. Please stay with us!

    E

    Reply
  82. Brad Seymour says

    April 2, 2020 at 12:03 pm

    Recently, I saw this quote from John C Bogle on Vanguard’s website and thought it would be appropriate here. “When the market’s going up, we think it’s going up forever. When the market market goes down, we think it’s going down forever. Neither of these things actually happen.” Thanks for your wisdom Jim and take care!

    Reply
  83. Matt says

    April 2, 2020 at 12:20 pm

    I was on a run this morning thinking about how mad I was that my guy, JL Collins, would only offer this to his 20 richest friends. Then, I realized it was a joke. Thanks for making me smile, bro.

    Reply
  84. Usama says

    April 2, 2020 at 3:24 pm

    Knowing you, “I have cracked the market timing code” is when I realized its an April fool joke 😛

    Reply
  85. Red Ben says

    April 3, 2020 at 1:26 am

    Before I realized the joke, i was thinking, “What a F*** A-hole sellout”

    After I realized, i was thinking “What a F***** A-hole”

    Reply
    • jlcollinsnh says

      April 5, 2020 at 6:59 am

      Glad we cleared that up, RB. 😉

      Reply
  86. David Weller says

    April 3, 2020 at 1:03 pm

    I had removed your website from my LastPass Vault thinking you’d gone off the deep end. I wonder how many others who don’t know you well, thought the same. Now tell us it ain’t so.

    Reply
  87. Scott says

    April 3, 2020 at 6:35 pm

    This just rocked my poor, innocent 26 year old world that sleeps with simple path to wealth under his pillow (jk I’m not like that). I read on April 3…should have looked at the date of the e-mail notification. Damn guess I’ll just pick my brain off the floor and keep ignoring the market!

    Reply
  88. Taylor says

    April 3, 2020 at 8:25 pm

    “Fool me once…fool me twice, shame on me.” Mr. Money Mustache tricked me last year with his April 1, 2019 post…otherwise you may have gotten me!

    Reply
  89. Lazylonewolf says

    April 4, 2020 at 12:24 am

    Initially shocked since anything could happen in a pandemic, but I realized it’s just a prank bro as soon as I read “cracked the market timing code”.

    Reply
  90. Grizzlybebe says

    April 4, 2020 at 8:10 pm

    I was shocked when seeing the title! But thankfully it’s just a trick since we definitely need your wisdom and confidence along the way in this market…

    Reply
  91. Moemoney says

    April 5, 2020 at 1:36 pm

    I’m so glad I’m not the only GULLIBLE one out there. I was so shocked and saddened as I’m a fairly new fan. Even at an older age, I have already shared “The simple path to wealth” with my children. My dad was a stockbroker and left me with a small inheritance with no instructions of what to do with it. He always said if you cant afford to loose it, don’t invest. Well after trying with a few FA’s who failed me, a friend suggested I read your book and I’m so glad I did! Thank you so much for helping me JL Collins!

    Reply
  92. Ryan says

    May 14, 2020 at 2:57 pm

    Hey Jim,

    I’m not as frequent a reader as many others here, but have been following you regularly this year. Sad to see you go, especially in a volatile time like this.

    Would love one last post on your thoughts on the FED’s ominous warning yesterday and whether or not you think this bear market will stick around for a couple/few years.

    Either way, good luck in your future endeavors!

    Reply
  93. Dawn from uk says

    May 14, 2020 at 3:10 pm

    Ryan….it was an April fool joke from jim …look at the date he posted it. …read the responses

    Reply
  94. Aimee says

    May 24, 2020 at 1:09 am

    I just heard about you recently and your book. I just goggled your blog and opened it and started scrolling and the title caught my eye so I started reading. This was literally the first blog post of yours I read. I can’t tell you how confused I was! 🙂 Glad to hear it’s an April Fools’ joke! I’m looking forward to reading your other posts!

    Reply
  95. Kelly Blake says

    July 11, 2020 at 5:59 pm

    I was recently introduced to the Choose FI community, Mad Fientist, and you. I’ve just read your book. What I can’t seem to find is what should those us of who haven’t saved since 20 years old do (I’m46)? We’ve been saving through our 401k but not as much as we now know we need to
    My husband and I are going to throw every penny of our income to investing but are index funds still a good choice for those who just want to retire more financially independent and are starting later in life? Is there any hope for those of us late to the party?

    Reply
  96. Dawn from uk says

    July 12, 2020 at 6:02 am

    Hi kelly. I too found out all this info very late.
    I started I was 49 years old when I bought my first index fund. 7 years ago. I had always been a good saver, but it was cash! I had a very small pension fund with default equity funds in there. So for the next 6 years I increased my workload and saved extremely aggressively for 6 years . I got my money in indexfunds as soon as I could, still kept a wedge in cash as I’m nearer FI . Its funny but once you put your mind to the goal you start to move mountains.
    I’m 55 years old now and FI my house was long paid off. So I would say yes even if you start late its doable. Once you get over the fact that your fuming you didnt find all this out 30 years ago.

    Reply
  97. Seann Herdejurgen says

    August 6, 2020 at 3:40 pm

    Is it too late to bid on the secret sauce? 😉

    -Seann

    Reply
  98. JamesRichard says

    November 2, 2020 at 2:36 pm

    I thought I had reached The Motley Fool (or Zack’s) website by accident!

    Reply

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      • roundup: Some random cool things
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      • Case Study #7: What it looks like when everything financial goes wrong
      • 1st Annual Louis Rukeyser Memorial Market Prediction Contest 2013 results, and my forecast for 2014
  • ► 2013 (41)
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      • Closing up for the Holidays, see you in 2014
      • Betterment: a simpler path to wealth
      • Case Study 6: Helping an ill and elderly parent
      • Stocks -- Part XX: Early Retirement Withdrawal Strategies and Roth Conversion Ladders from a Mad Fientist
    • ► November (3)
      • Death, Taxes, Estate Plans, Probate and Prob8
      • Case Study #5: Zero to 2.6 million in 25 years
      • Case Study #4: Using the 4% rule and asset allocations.
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      • Republic Wireless and my $19 per month phone plan
      • Case Study #3: Let's get Tom to Latin America!
      • The Stock Series gets its own page
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      • Case Study #2: Joe -- off to a fast start!
      • Chautauqua 2013: A Week of Dreams
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      • They Will Kill You For Your Shoes!
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      • Stocks -- Part VIII-b: Should you avoid your company's 401k?
      • Shilpan's Seven Habits to Live More with Less
      • Stocks -- Part XIX: How to think about money
      • My path for my kid -- the first 10 years
    • ► May (5)
      • Why your house is a terrible investment
      • Stocks — Part XVIII: Investing in a raging bull
      • Dining with the Ghosts of Sarah Bernhardt and Alfons Mucha
      • How we finally got the house sold
      • Stocks — Part XVII: What if you can't buy VTSAX? Or even Vanguard?
    • ► April (4)
      • Greetings from Prague & a computer question
      • Swimming with Tigers, a 2nd chance on the Chautauqua, a financial article gets it wrong and I'm off to Prague
      • Storage, Moving and Movers
      • Homeless, and a bit on the strategy of dollar cost averaging
    • ► March (4)
      • Wild Turkeys, Motorcycles, Dining Room Sets & Greed
      • Roots v. Wings: considering home ownership
      • How about that stock market?!
      • The Blog has New Clothes
    • ► February (5)
      • Meet Mr. Money Mustache, JD Roth, Cheryl Reed & me for a Chautauqua in Ecuador
      • High School Poetry, Carnival, cool ads and random pictures that caught my eye
      • Consignment Shops: Best business model ever?
      • Cafes
      • Stocks -- Part XVI: Index Funds are really just for lazy people, right?
    • ► January (5)
      • Social Security: How secure and when to take it
      • Fighting giraffes, surreal landscapes, dancing with unicorns and restoring a Vanagon
      • My plan for 2013
      • VITA, income taxes and the IRS
      • How to be a stock market guru and get on MSNBC
  • ► 2012 (53)
    • ► December (6)
      • See you next year....until then: The Origin of Life, Life on Other Worlds, Mechanical Graveyards, Great Art, Alternative Lifestyles and Finding Freedom
      • Stocks -- Part XV: Target Retirement Funds, the simplest path to wealth of all
      • Stocks -- Part XIV: Deflation, the ugly escort of Depressions.
      • Stocks Part XIV: Deflation, the ugly escort of Depressions.
      • Stocks -- Part XIII: The 4% rule, withdrawal rates and how much can I spend anyway?
      • How I learned to stop worrying about the Fiscal Cliff and you can too.
    • ► November (2)
      • Rent v. owning: A couple of case studies in Ecuador
      • So, what does a month in Ecuador cost anyway?
    • ► October (4)
      • See you in December....
      • Meet me in Ecuador?
      • The Podcast: You can hear me now.
      • Stocks -- Part XII: Bonds
    • ► September (6)
      • Stocks -- Part XI: International Funds
      • The Smoother Path to Wealth
      • Case Study #I: Putting the Simple Path to Wealth into Action
      • Tales of Bolivia: Calle de las Brujas
      • Stocks -- Part X: What if Vanguard gets Nuked?
      • Travels in South America: It was the best of times....
    • ► August (1)
      • Home again
    • ► June (4)
      • Yellow Fever, closing up shop for the summer and heading to Peru y Bolivia
      • I could not have said it better myself...
      • Stocks -- Part IX: Why I don't like investment advisors
      • Happy Birthday, jlcollinsnh; and thanks for the gift Mr. MM!
    • ► May (6)
      • Stocks -- Part VIII: The 401K, 403b, TSP, IRA & Roth Buckets
      • Mr. Money Mustache
      • The College Conundrum
      • Stocks -- Part VII: Can everyone really retire a millionaire?
      • Stocks -- Part VI: Portfolio ideas to build and keep your wealth
      • Stocks -- Part V: Keeping it simple, considerations and tools
    • ► April (6)
      • Stocks -- Part IV: The Big Ugly Event, Deflation and a bit on Inflation
      • Stocks -- Part III: Most people lose money in the market.
      • Stocks -- Part II: The Market Always Goes Up
      • Stocks -- Part 1: There's a major market crash coming!!!! and Dr. Lo can't save you.
      • You can eat my Vindaloo, mega lottery, Blondie, Noa, Israel Kamakawiwo 'Ole, art, film and a ride on the Space Shuttle
      • Where in the world are you?
    • ► March (7)
      • How I lost money in real estate before it was fashionable, Part V: Sold! and the taxman cometh.
      • How I lost money in real estate before it was fashionable, Part IV: I become a Landlord.
      • How I lost money in real estate before it was fashionable, Part III: The Battle is Joined.
      • How I lost money in real estate before it was fashionable, Part II: The Limits of the Law.
      • How I lost money in real estate before it was fashionable, Part I: Impossibly Naive.
      • You, too, can be conned
      • Armageddon and the value of practical skills
    • ► February (6)
      • Rent v. Owning Your Home, opportunity cost and running some numbers
      • The Casanova Kid, a Shit Knife, a Good Book, Having No Regrets, Dark Matter and a bit of Magic
      • What Poker, Basketball and Mike Whitaker taught me about Luck
      • How to Give like a Billionaire
      • Go ahead, make my day
      • Muk Finds Success in Tahiti
    • ► January (5)
      • Travels with "Esperando un Camino"
      • Beanie Babies, Naked Barbie, American Pickers and Old Coots
      • Selling the House and Adventures in Staging
      • The bashing of Index Funds, Jack Bogle and a Jedi dog trick
      • Magic Beans
  • ► 2011 (22)
    • ► December (1)
      • Dividend Growth Investing
    • ► November (2)
      • The Mummy's head, Particle Physics and "Knocking on Heaven's Door"
      • "It's Better in the Wind" or why I ride a motorcycle
    • ► October (1)
      • Lazy Days and School Days
    • ► July (2)
      • The road to Zanzibar sometimes goes thru Ecuador...
      • Johnny wins the lotto and heads to Paris
    • ► June (16)
      • Chainsaws, Elm Trees and paying for College
      • Stuff I’ve failed at: the early years
      • Snatching Victory from the Jaws of Defeat
      • The. Worst. Used. Car. Ever.
      • Top Ten reasons your future is so bright it hurts my eyes to look at it
      • The Most Dangerous Words Your Customer Can Say
      • How not to drown in The Sea of Assholes
      • What we own and why we own it
      • The Ten Sales Commandments
      • My ever so formal and oh so dry CV
      • How I failed my daughter and a simple path to wealth
      • The Myth of Motivation
      • Why you need F-you money
      • My short attention span
      • Why I can’t pick winning stocks, and you can’t either
      • The Monk and the Minister

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